FNUS75 KGJT 091511 FWSGJT SPOT FORECAST FOR OHIO CITY PITKIN...USFS NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO 911 AM MDT MON MAY 9 2011 FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1000 MDT ON MAY 09. IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. .DISCUSSION... UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO DEEPEN OVER THE WESTERN GREAT BASIN TODAY. LEAD DISTURBANCE ACCOMPANIED BY UPPER LEVEL JET MAX WITH PUSH ACROSS THE 4 CORNERS INTO NORTHWEST COLORADO THIS AFTERNOON...PUSHING A COLD FRONT TOWARD THE PROPOSED BURN SITE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT CAN BE EXPECTED AS MIXING HEIGHTS INCREASE AND BRING DOWN SOME HIGHER GUSTS. INSTABILITY WILL ALSO BE INCREASING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND THE ARRIVAL OF THE DISTURBANCE ALOFT SHOULD PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. OTHER STORMS CAN ALSO BE EXPECTED ALONG THE FRONT AS IT APPROACHES THE BURN SITE AROUND 4 PM MDT. THE WESTERN TROF WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN...KEEPING UNSETTLED WEATHER IN PLACE THROUGH MIDWEEK. .TODAY... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY WITH INCREASING CLOUDINESS BECOMING MOSTLY CLOUDY BY 1100 AM CDT. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING BY EARLY AFTERNOON. MAX TEMPERATURE.....52 TO 57 F. MIN HUMIDITY........22-27%. 20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH THROUGH 1100...INCREASING TO 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS TO NEAR 30 MPH. WINDS TURNING WEST TO NORTHWEST BEHIND COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE EXPECTED AROUND 4 PM. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR THROUGH 1000 AM MDT...INCREASING TO VERY GOOD BY NOON...THEN EXCELLENT BY EARLY AFTERNOON. MIXING HEIGHT.......2500 FT AGL INCREASING TO NEAR 6000 FT BY NOON... THEN NEAR 10000 BY EARLY AFTERNOON. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 21 MPH INCREASING TO 40 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. .TONIGHT... SMOKE DISPERSAL.....EXCELLENT DECREASING TO POOR BY MIDNIGHT. MIXING HEIGHT.......9100 FT AGL DECREASING TO LESS THAN 2000 FT AGL IN THE LATE EVENING. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 20 MPH. .TUESDAY... SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR THROUGH 1000 AM MDT...THEN INCREASING TO EXCELLENT BY EARLY AFTERNOON. MIXING HEIGHT.......1700 FT AGL INCREASING TO 9000 FT AGL BY EARLY AFTERNOON. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 20 MPH. $$ FORECASTER...DENNIS PHILLIPS REQUESTED BY...MIFMU TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED .TAG 20110509.OHIOC.01/GJT