FNUS75 KGJT 091421
FWSGJT

SPOT FORECAST FOR ONE MILE...USFS GUNNISON
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
821 AM MDT MON MAY 9 2011

FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 0750 MDT ON MAY 09.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO DEEPEN OVER THE WESTERN GREAT BASIN TODAY.
LEAD PIECE OF ENERGY AND UPPER LEVEL JET MAX WITH PUSH ACROSS THE 4
CORNERS INTO NORTHWEST COLORADO THIS AFTERNOON...PUSHING A COLD FRONT
TOWARD THE PROPOSED BURN SITE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. GUSTY SOUTHWEST
WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT CAN BE EXPECTED AS MIXING HEIGHTS INCREASE
AND BRING DOWN SOME HIGHER GUSTS. INSTABILITY WILL ALSO BE INCREASING
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND THE ARRIVAL OF THE DISTURBANCE ALOFT
SHOULD PRODUCE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. OTHER STORMS ARE ALSO ALONG
THE FRONT CURRENTLY APPROACHING THE WESTERN COLORADO BORDER...SO THIS
WILL BE ANOTHER FOCUS FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE DAY. THE WESTERN
TROF WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN...KEEPING UNSETTLED
WEATHER IN PLACE THROUGH MIDWEEK.

.TODAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........INCREASING CLOUDINESS...BECOMING MOSTLY
                    CLOUDY BY 1000. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
                    THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING IN THE AFTERNOON.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....46-51 F.
MIN HUMIDITY........23-28%.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO
                    25 MPH...BECOMING SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AND
                    INCREASING TO 15 TO 20 MPH BY NOON WITH
                    GUSTS NEAR 30 MPH. WINDS WILL TURN WEST TO
                    NORTHWEST AROUND 4 PM WITH COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.
                    GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR
                    THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR THROUGH 1000 AM MDT...INCREASING TO
                    VERY GOOD BY NOON...EXCELLENT THIS AFTERNOON.
MIXING HEIGHT.......1600 FT AGL INCREASING TO 10500 FT AGL BY
                    EARLY AFTERNOON.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 25 MPH INCREASING TO 40 MPH IN THE
                    AFTERNOON.

.TONIGHT...

SMOKE DISPERSAL.....EXCELLENT THROUGH MID EVENING...DECREASING TO
                    FAIR IN THE LATE EVENING...POOR OVERNIGHT.

$$
FORECASTER...DENNIS PHILLIPS
REQUESTED BY...J  CHONKA
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20110509.ONEMI.01/GJT