FNUS72 KJAX 091412 FWSJAX SPOT FORECAST FOR HONEY PRAIRIE SUPPORT...FL DIVISION OF FORESTRY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL 1012 AM EDT MON MAY 9 2011 FORECAST IS BASED ON REQUEST TIME OF 0951 EDT ON MAY 09. IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. .DISCUSSION...THE INTERACTION OF A WEAK MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE...DAYTIME HEATING AND THERMAL BOUNDARIES NEAR THE FIRE MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO GENERATE A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EARLY EVENING...WITH THE MAIN CONCERNS OF GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL LIKELY BE LIGHT. RH VALUES ARE FORECAST TO DIP TO AROUND 35% WITH MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES INTO THE LOWER 90S. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL PREVAIL IN THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE...WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS AT 5 TO 10 MPH. SIMILAR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FOR TUESDAY. HIGH DISPERSION VALUES ARE FORECAST EACH DAY IN RESPONSE TO VERY WARM TEMPERATURES AND HIGH MIXING HEIGHTS. .TODAY... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (30-40 PERCENT). AREAS OF SMOKE. SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON. MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 92. MIN HUMIDITY........35 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH. GUSTS TO NEAR 15 MPH POSSIBLE. LAL.................1 UNTIL 1400...THEN 2. MIXING HEIGHT.......1000-1500 FT AGL INCREASING TO 5200-6800 FT AGL. MIXING WINDS........NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH. DISPERSION INDEX....69. CHANCE OF PCPN......10 PERCENT. TIME (EDT) 9 AM 11 AM 1 PM 3 PM 5 PM SKY (%).........21 30 44 44 41 WEATHER COV.....AREAS AREAS AREAS S CHC S CHC WEATHER TYPE....SMOKE SMOKE SMOKE RNSHWR RNSHWR TEMP............80 88 91 92 90 RH..............77 48 38 36 41 20 FT WIND......W 5 NW 7 NW 8 N 8 N 7 20 FT WIND GUST.10 15 20 15 15 MIX HGT (FT)....1500 4100 6800 6800 5200 TRANSPORT WIND..NW 7 NW 9 NW 9 NW 9 N 8 DISPERSION INDX.24 60 69 69 59 CHC OF PCPN (%).0 0 20 20 20 LAL.............1 1 2 2 2 .TONIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (25-35 PERCENT). SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE EVENING. AREAS OF SMOKE. MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 63. MAX HUMIDITY........100 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........NORTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 7 MPH IN THE EVENING BECOMING LIGHT. LAL.................2 UNTIL 2000...THEN 1. MIXING HEIGHT.......3700-5200 FT AGL DECREASING TO 300-2000 FT AGL LATE IN THE EVENING. MIXING WINDS........NORTHEAST 7 TO 8 MPH SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHEAST 8 TO 9 MPH LATE IN THE EVENING. DISPERSION INDEX....4. CHANCE OF PCPN......10 PERCENT. LVORI...............6. TIME (EDT) 6 PM 8 PM 10 PM MIDNGT 2 AM 4 AM SKY (%).........41 32 32 27 19 19 WEATHER COV.....S CHC PATCHY PATCHY WEATHER TYPE....RNSHWR NONE NONE NONE FOG FOG TEMP............88 80 74 70 67 65 RH..............41 53 67 76 85 95 20 FT WIND......N 7 NE 6 E 5 E 3 E 2 SE 1 20 FT WIND GUST.10 10 10 5 5 5 MIX HGT (FT)....5200 3700 3700 2000 300 300 TRANSPORT WIND..N 8 NE 7 NE 7 E 8 SE 9 SE 9 LVORI...........6 6 6 6 6 6 DISPERSION INDX.M M M M M M CHC OF PCPN (%).20 10 10 10 0 0 LAL.............2 1 1 1 1 1 .TUESDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY (25-35 PERCENT). PATCHY FOG EARLY IN THE MORNING. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON. MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 94. MIN HUMIDITY........31 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT WINDS BECOMING SOUTHEAST AROUND 5 MPH LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. LAL.................1 UNTIL 1400...THEN 3. MIXING HEIGHT.......800-1400 FT AGL INCREASING TO 5600-7200 FT AGL. MIXING WINDS........SOUTHWEST 8 MPH. DISPERSION INDEX....20. CHANCE OF PCPN......20 PERCENT. $$ FORECASTER...ZAPPE REQUESTED BY...SEAN LUCHS TYPE OF REQUEST...WILDFIRE .TAG 20110509.HONEY.01/JAX