FNUS74 KLUB 100456 FWSLUB FIRE WEATHER PLANNING FORECAST FOR DICKENS FIRE...DICKENS COMPLEX COMMAND NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX 1156 PM CDT MON MAY 9 2011 FORECAST IS BASED ON REQUEST TIME OF 2313 CDT ON MAY 09. IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. ...FIRE WEATHER WATCH IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING... ...FIRE WEATHER WATCH IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING... .DISCUSSION... THE DRYLINE IS CURRENTLY PUSHING BACK TO THE WEST WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME MOISTURE RECOVERY OVERNIGHT AS RH VALUES CLIMB BACK INTO THE 55-65 PERCENT RANGE FROM MIDNIGHT THROUGH 6 AM. HOWEVER, DRY AIR WILL RAPIDLY PUSH BACK TO THE EAST TUESDAY MORNING AND WILL DROP RH VALUES RAPIDLY BACK INTO THE 5-10 PERCENT RANGE BY 2 PM. WIND DIRECTIONS OVERNIGHT WILL STAY OUT OF THE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 30 MPH. DRYLINE SHOULD PUSH INTO THE FIRE COMPLEX BETWEEN 8 TO 10 AM AND RESULT IN SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS 18 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 45 MPH BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS. STILL UNSURE WHERE THE BEST AREA FOR RED FLAG CONDITIONS WILL BE IN THE AFTERNOON AND WILL LET THE INCOMING MIDNIGHT SHIFT EVALUATE THE SITUATION ON WHETHER THE WATCH FOR TODAY NEEDS TO BE UPGRADED TO A RED FLAG WARNING. DRYLINE WILL STAY CLOSE BY HOWEVER AND MAY START TO PUSH BACK TO THE WEST EARLIER THAN ON MONDAY AND COULD SPARK SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON. UNCERTAINTY REMAINS RATHER HIGH AND CONFIDENCE LOW IN WHETHER STORMS WILL DEVELOP OR NOT...BUT GUSTY VARIABLE WINDS AND LIGHTNING CANNOT BE RULED OUT. LATEST MODEL FORECAST DATA CONTINUES TO ARRIVE AND WILL EVALUATE THE SITUATION OVERNIGHT ON WHETHER TO INCREASE OR REMOVE CHANCES FOR STORMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY EVENING OVER AND NEAR THE FIRE COMPLEX. .TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (35-45 PERCENT). MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 65. MAX HUMIDITY........30-81 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........BREEZY. SOUTH WINDS 12 TO 26 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 40 MPH. LAL.................1. MIXING HEIGHT.......0-10800 FT AGL. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 8 TO 35 MPH. EYE LEVEL WINDS.....BREEZY. SOUTH WINDS 12 TO 26 MPH GUSTS TO 35 MPH. TIME (CDT) MIDNGT 2 AM 4 AM 6 AM 8 AM 10 AM NOON SKY (%).........23 23 26 29 31 38 45 WEATHER COV..... WEATHER TYPE....NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE TEMP............79 75 71 69 69 76 82 RH..............50 61 68 77 62 30 15 20 FT WIND......S 11 S 10 S 7 SW 7 SW 7 W 7 SW 7 20 FT WIND GUST.20 25 20 20 20 25 20 EYE LEVEL WIND..S 16 S 18 S 17 SW 15 SW 15 W 25 SW 20 EYE LEVEL WIND..20 25 25 20 20 30 35 TIME (CDT) 2 PM 4 PM 6 PM 8 PM 10 PM MIDNGT 2 AM 4 AM SKY (%).........47 47 48 49 51 53 54 51 WEATHER COV..... ISOLTD ISOLTD WEATHER TYPE....NONE RNSHWR RNSHWR NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE TEMP............87 90 89 86 79 76 73 70 RH..............10 10 22 37 40 57 68 72 20 FT WIND......SW 9 S 11 S 14 S 14 SE 14 S 13 S 11 S 10 20 FT WIND GUST.30 35 40 40 30 25 25 20 EYE LEVEL WIND..SW 19 S 17 S 14 SE 14 SE 14 SE 13 S 11 S 10 EYE LEVEL WIND..35 35 30 25 25 25 25 20 .WEDNESDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (25-35 PERCENT). MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 91. MIN HUMIDITY........7 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........BREEZY. SOUTHWEST WINDS 13 TO 23 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 35 MPH INCREASING TO 23 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 40 MPH EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON. LAL.................1. MIXING HEIGHT.......0-1500 FT AGL INCREASING TO 14600 FT AGL. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 8 TO 14 MPH INCREASING TO 30 TO 35 MPH. EYE LEVEL WINDS.....BREEZY. SOUTHWEST WINDS 13 TO 23 MPH INCREASING TO 23 TO 25 MPH EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON. TIME (CDT) 6 AM 8 AM 10 AM NOON 2 PM 4 PM SKY (%).........49 46 39 32 26 19 WEATHER COV..... WEATHER TYPE....NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE TEMP............69 70 76 82 86 89 RH..............77 67 41 24 14 9 20 FT WIND......S 10 S 10 SW 13 SW 15 SW 18 SW 18 20 FT WIND GUST.20 20 25 35 40 40 EYE LEVEL WIND..S 10 S 10 SW 13 SW 15 SW 18 SW 18 EYE LEVEL WIND..20 20 25 35 40 40 $$ FORECASTER...JORDAN/JURECKA REQUESTED BY...LEE JONES TYPE OF REQUEST...WILDFIRE .TAG 20110509.DICKE.03/LUB