FNUS74 KEPZ 102143
FWSEPZ

FIRE WEATHER PLANNING FORECAST FOR MAYHILL...LNF
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
343 PM MDT TUE MAY 10 2011

FORECAST IS BASED ON REQUEST TIME OF 1507 MDT ON MAY 10.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING...
...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT TONIGHT...
...FIRE WEATHER WATCH IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
WEDNESDAY EVENING...

.DISCUSSION...
DEEP UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT REMAIN WELL WEST OF THE AREA
OVER ARIZONA.  THE BAND OF STRONGEST WINDS ALOFT ARE STILL OVER WESTERN
NEW MEXICO...AND WILL MOVE OVER THE SACRAMENTOS AROUND MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.
AS A RESULT...EXPECT WINDS TO INCREASE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
AFTERNOON...AND TO REMAIN STRONG OVERNIGHT.  WINDS WILL TEND TO BE
ERRATIC GIVEN THE TERRAIN...ESPECIALLY IN SIDE CANYONS.  FOR EXAMPLE...
ALREADY WE ARE SEEING STRONGER WINDS AT MAYHILL RAWS /12 MPH GUSTING 30/
AND AT OTHER STATIONS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN WEST OF MAYHILL.  SO EXPECT
STRONGER WINDS WHERE VALLEYS/CANYONS ARE CONSTRICTED AND ORIENTED WITH
THE WINDS.

WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST LATE TONIGHT...BEST GUESS 2 AM TO 5 AM...
AND WILL REMAIN IN THE 15 TO 20 MPH RANGE WITH HIGHER GUSTS...AND WILL
MAINTAIN THIS SPEED/DIRECTION THROUGH MOST OF TOMORROW AS WELL.

WITH THE WINDS...EXPECT POOR RH RECOVERY OVERNIGHT.  COOLER TEMPERATURES
BEHIND THE FRONT TOMORROW WILL ONLY BOOST RH TO THE 10 TO 15 RANGE.


.REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (15-25 PERCENT).
CWR.................0 PERCENT.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....78-81.
MIN HUMIDITY........5-10 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTH-SOUTHWEST AROUND 15 MPH WITH GUSTS 30 MPH
                    IN SHELTERED AREAS.  20-25 MPH WITH GUSTS 35 TO
                    40 MPH IN EXPOSED AREAS OR NARROWER SW-NE ORIENTED
                    CANYONS.
MIXING HEIGHT.......MAX 8500 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST AROUND 37 KNOTS.
VENTILATION.........314,000 KNOT-FEET (EXCELLENT)


.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLEAR (20-30 PERCENT).
CWR.................0 PERCENT.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....42-47.
MAX HUMIDITY........30-35 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHWEST 15 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 40 MPH BEFORE
                    MIDNIGHT...SHIFTING TO THE WEST BEFORE DAWN.  WINDS
                    WILL BE ERRATIC DEPENDING ON TERRAIN ORIENTATION.


.WEDNESDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY (5-15 PERCENT).
CWR.................0 PERCENT.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....64-68.
MIN HUMIDITY........10-15 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........WEST-SOUTHWEST 16-22 MPH WITH GUSTS AROUND 30 MPH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......MAX 9000 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST AROUND 25 KNOTS.
VENTILATION.........225,000 KNOT-FEET (EXCELLENT)

$$

FORECASTER...HARDIMAN
REQUESTED BY...NM ADC
REASON FOR REQUEST...WILDFIRE
.TAG 20110510.MAYHI.01/EPZ