FNUS74 KEPZ 110001
FWSEPZ

FIRE WEATHER PLANNING FORECAST FOR MILLER...GNF
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
601 PM MDT TUE MAY 10 2011

UPDATED TO INCLUDE OVERNIGHT PERIODS.
FORECAST IS BASED ON REQUEST TIME OF 1537 MDT ON MAY 10.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING...
...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING...

.DISCUSSION...
DEEP UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT REMAIN OVER ARIZONA.  BAND
OF STRONGER UPPER-LEVEL SOUTHWEST WINDS AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM IS JUST
NOW MOVING INTO THE AREA...SO EXPECT WINDS TO CONTINUE TO RAMP UP
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON.  WIND DIRECTION WILL ALSO SLOWLY
BEGIN TO SHIFT MORE TO THE WEST...ESPECIALLY AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH SOMETIME BETWEEN 6 PM AND 8 PM MDT.  WIND DIRECTION MAY BECOME
MORE ERRATIC ON THE NORTHEAST FLANK OF THE BURN AREA DUE TO THE TERRAIN
ORIENTATION.  BREEZY WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL RESULT IN POOR RH RECOVERY.

WEST WINDS WILL REMAIN BREEZY WEDNESDAY AND TEMPERATURES WILL COOL A
FEW DEGREES.  BOTH WIND AND RH WILL LIKELY FALL JUST SHY OF RED FLAG
CRITERIA.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD IN FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK...
RESULTING IN LIGHTER WINDS.  TEMPERATURES WILL QUICKLY WARM BACK UP
BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...AND RH VALUES WILL DROP BELOW 15 PERCENT
AGAIN DURING THIS TIME FRAME.


.WEDNESDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (10-20 PERCENT).
CWR.................0 PERCENT.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....65-68.
MIN HUMIDITY........13-17 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........WEST 15 TO 22 MPH GUSTS 25 TO 30 MPH.
                    WINDS MAY VEER MORE TO THE NORTHWEST ALONG
                    THE NORTHEASTERN FLANK OF FIRE DUE TO TERRAIN
                    ORIENTATION.
MIXING HEIGHT.......MAX 9500 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST AROUND 16 KNOTS.
VENTILATION.........152,000 KNOT-FEET (EXCELLENT)
HAINES INDEX........MORNING 2-3.
                    AFTERNOON 4.


.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (30-40 PERCENT)
CWR.................0 PERCENT.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....34-39 DEGREES...COLDEST IN CANYON FLOORS.
MAX HUMIDITY........36 TO 42 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........BECOMING NORTHWEST AROUND 10 MPH...THEN NORTH
                    4 TO 8 MPH...DRAINAGE FLOWS MAY CAUSE WIND
                    DIRECTION TO VARY IN CANYONS/VALLEYS.
HAINES INDEX........BEFORE MIDNIGHT 3.
                    AFTER MIDNIGHT 2.


.THURSDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY (0-10 PERCENT).
CWR.................0 PERCENT.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....70-75.
MIN HUMIDITY........7-12 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........NORTHWEST 7 TO 12 MPH...LOCALLY HIGHER
                    GUSTS TO 20 MPH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......MAX 10500 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST AROUND 10 KNOTS.
VENTILATION.........105,000 KNOT-FEET (VERY GOOD)
HAINES INDEX........MORNING 3.
                    AFTERNOON 5-6.

.THURSDAY NIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........CLEAR (0-10 PERCENT)
CWR.................0 PERCENT.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....38-45 DEGREES...COLDEST IN CANYON FLOORS.
MAX HUMIDITY........30 TO 40 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........NORTHWEST AROUND 5 TO 10 MPH BEFORE MIDNIGHT
                    THEN VARIABLE 3 TO 6 MPH WITH DRAINAGE FLOWS
                    PREVAILING AFTER MIDNIGHT.
HAINES INDEX........BEFORE MIDNIGHT 5.
                    AFTER MIDNIGHT 4.



.FRIDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (15-25 PERCENT).
CWR.................0 PERCENT.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....74-79.
MIN HUMIDITY........7-11 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT AND VARIABLE IN THE MORNING BECOMING SOUTHWEST
                    6 TO 10 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.
MIXING HEIGHT.......MAX 15000 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST AROUND 8 KNOTS.
VENTILATION.........120,000 KNOT-FEET (VERY GOOD)
HAINES INDEX........MORNING 4-5.
                    AFTERNOON 5-6.


$$
FORECASTER...HARDIMAN
REQUESTED BY...DAN MINDAR
REASON FOR REQUEST...WILDFIRE
.TAG 20110510.MILLE.02/EPZ