FNUS73 KFGF 101449 FWSFGF SPOT FORECAST FOR ARNESON...USFWS NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND 949 AM CDT TUE MAY 10 2011 FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1300 CDT ON MAY 10. IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. .DISCUSSION... A STRONG STORM SYSTEM AND A WARM FRONT WILL IMPACT THE BURN LOCATION TODAY...WHICH WILL CAUSE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AREA. THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOST LIKELY DEVELOP DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON...OR AROUND AND JUST AFTER PEAK HEATING. A VERY MOIST AIR MASS FOR MID MAY WILL KEEP AFTERNOON HUMIDITY ELEVATED. A WARM FRONT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE BURN LOCATION THIS AFTERNOON. WHILE SOUTHEAST WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH SEEM LIKELY AROUND BURN TIME...THINGS MAY BECOME DICEY DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. THE FORECAST CALLS FOR THE WINDS TO GRADUALLY BECOME SOUTHERLY...BUT WARM FRONT PASSAGES ARE RARELY QUICK OR CLEAN. THERE MAY BE TIMES OF ERRATIC OR WEAK WINDS DURING THE PROLONGED PASSAGE. ALSO...ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP COULD CAUSE GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS. .TODAY... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON...THEN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. MAX TEMPERATURE.....74-79. MIN HUMIDITY........56-61 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........SOUTH WINDS 13 TO 18 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 25 MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS. MIXING HEIGHT.......900-2600 FT AGL INCREASING TO 2400-3400 FT AGL IN THE AFTERNOON...THEN DECREASING TO 1300 FT AGL LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. MIXING WINDS........SOUTHEAST 28 TO 36 MPH BECOMING SOUTH 15 TO 22 MPH LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. TIME (CDT) 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM 6PM SKY (%).........60 58 56 53 51 49 47 WEATHER COV.....ISO ISO ISO ISO SCT SCT SCT WEATHER TYPE....TSM TSM TSM TSM TSM TSM TSM TEMP............63 66 69 72 74 75 76 RH..............78 75 70 65 62 62 61 20 FT WIND DIR..SE SE SE SE SE S S 20 FT WIND SPD..16 15 15 14 14 11 9 20 FT WIND GUST.25 25 25 25 20 20 15 .TONIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY BECOMING MOSTLY CLOUDY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE EVENING...THEN ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE EVENING. MIN TEMPERATURE.....50-55. MAX HUMIDITY........79-84 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 8 MPH EARLY IN THE EVENING BECOMING LIGHT...THEN BECOMING SOUTHWEST 5 TO 6 MPH EARLY IN THE MORNING. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EVENING. MIXING HEIGHT.......300 FT AGL. MIXING WINDS........SOUTHWEST 8 TO 16 MPH. TIME (CDT) 7 PM 9 PM 11 PM 1 AM 3 AM 5 AM SKY (%).........46 46 48 50 52 55 WEATHER COV.....SCTTRD SCTTRD ISOLTD WEATHER TYPE....TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM NONE NONE NONE TEMP............75 68 63 61 58 54 RH..............65 78 83 84 84 83 20 FT WIND......S 7 SW 5 SW 4 S 3 S 4 S 5 20 FT WIND GUST.10 10 5 5 5 10 .WEDNESDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON. MAX TEMPERATURE.....69-74. MIN HUMIDITY........53-58 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........NORTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON. MIXING HEIGHT.......300 FT AGL INCREASING TO 2100-3200 FT AGL IN THE AFTERNOON. MIXING WINDS........NORTHWEST 9 TO 12 MPH. TIME (CDT) 7 AM 10 AM 1 PM 4 PM SKY (%).........57 59 61 66 WEATHER COV..... CHANCE CHANCE WEATHER TYPE....NONE NONE TSTORM TSTORM TEMP............52 59 66 71 RH..............82 71 61 58 20 FT WIND......SW 5G10 W 5G10 W 5G10 NW 7G10 $$ FORECASTER...GROCHOCINSKI REQUESTED BY...LINDY MCNEILUS TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED .TAG 20110510.ARNES.01/FGF