FNUS72 KJAX 102123
FWSJAX

SPOT FORECAST FOR NATL...UNIVERSITY OF FLORIDA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
523 PM EDT TUE MAY 10 2011

FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1730 EDT ON MAY 10.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...A WEAK BACK DOOR FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH INTO THE AREA
WEDNESDAY.

RH VALUES ARE FORECAST TO BE NEAR CRITICALLY LOW VALUES FOR BRIEF
DURATIONS THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON. SUSTAINED WINDS WILL BE LESS
THAN 15 MPH BUT MAY GUST TO 15 MPH DURING THE AFTERNOONS.
DISPERSION INDICES WILL BE HIGH ON WEDNESDAY...WITH VALUES OVER 75.

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (25-35 PERCENT). PATCHY FOG AFTER
                    MIDNIGHT.
TEMPERATURE.........87 AT IGNITION...MIN 67.
RH..................47 PERCENT AT IGNITION...MAX 98 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........WINDS SOUTHWEST AT 8 MPH AT
                    IGNITION...OTHERWISE WEST WINDS 5 TO 9 MPH IN
                    THE EVENING BECOMING LIGHT.
LAL.................1.
MIXING HEIGHT.......4900 FT AGL AT IGNITION...OTHERWISE 4900 FT AGL
                    DECREASING TO 300-1500 FT AGL EARLY IN THE
                    EVENING.
MIXING WINDS........WEST 9 TO 15 MPH DECREASING TO 3 TO 6 MPH AFTER
                    MIDNIGHT.
DISPERSION INDEX....2.
CHANCE OF PCPN......10 PERCENT.
LVORI...............7.

TIME (EDT)      6 PM   8 PM   10 PM  MIDNGT 2 AM   4 AM
SKY (%).........30     25     25     25     25     25
WEATHER COV.....                            PATCHY PATCHY
WEATHER TYPE....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   FOG    FOG
TEMP............87     81     76     73     71     69
RH..............47     59     71     80     87     91
20 FT WIND......SW 8   W 9    W 7    W 5    SW 2   SW 3
20 FT WIND GUST.10     15     10            5      5
MIX HGT (FT)....4900   1500   1500   900    300    300
TRANSPORT WIND..W 13   W 15   W 15   W 9    W 3    W 3
LVORI...........7      7      7      7      7      7
DISPERSION INDX.71     10     7      4      2      2
CHC OF PCPN (%).0      10     10     10     0      0
LAL.............1      1      1      1      1      1

.WEDNESDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (30-40 PERCENT). PATCHY FOG EARLY
                    IN THE MORNING. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
                    THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURE.........MAX 92.
RH..................MIN 36 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT WINDS BECOMING WEST 5 TO 13 MPH EARLY IN
                    THE MORNING.
LAL.................1 UNTIL 1400...THEN 2.
MIXING HEIGHT.......900-1500 FT AGL INCREASING TO 4500-5500 FT AGL.
MIXING WINDS........WEST 6 TO 15 MPH INCREASING TO 15 TO 18 MPH
                    EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON.
DISPERSION INDEX....80.
CHANCE OF PCPN......10 PERCENT.

TIME (EDT)      6 AM   8 AM   10 AM  NOON   2 PM   4 PM
SKY (%).........25     30     30     30     45     45
WEATHER COV.....PATCHY                      S CHC  S CHC
WEATHER TYPE....FOG    NONE   NONE   NONE   TSTORM TSTORM
TEMP............67     70     82     88     92     92
RH..............96     89     58     44     36     37
20 FT WIND......SW 3   SW 5   W 8    W 12   W 13   W 13
20 FT WIND GUST.5             10     15     20     15
MIX HGT (FT)....900    1500   1500   3500   5500   5500
TRANSPORT WIND..W 6    W 10   W 10   W 15   W 18   W 18
DISPERSION INDX.3      20     20     52     80     80
CHC OF PCPN (%).0      0      0      0      20     20
LAL.............1      1      1      1      2      2

$$
FORECASTER...PETERSON
REQUESTED BY...LEDA KOBZIAR
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20110510.NATL_.01/JAX