FNUS73 KAPX 111411 FWSAPX SPOT FORECAST FOR SUMMERS ZISSLER...USFS NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI 1011 AM EDT WED MAY 11 2011 FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 0935 EDT ON MAY 11. IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. .DISCUSSION...AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN THIS MORNING...GRADUALLY DISSIPATING AS THEY MOVE EAST INTO LESS FAVORABLE CONDITIONS. A FEW OF THESE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY MAKE IT AS FAR EAST AS THE BURN AREA BY LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. A RATHER THICK CANOPY OF CLOUDINESS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. IT WILL GRADUALLY DISSIPATE AND THIN OUT FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS DRIER AIR TO OUR NORTHWEST WORKS INTO THE AREA. THE DENSE CLOUD COVER WILL INITIALLY KEEP TEMPERATURES ON THE COOL SIDE...BUT READINGS SHOULD JUMP FAIRLY QUICKLY INTO THE LOWER 70S BY MID AFTERNOON WITH GRADUALLY INCREASING SUNSHINE. RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES GREATER THAN 50 PERCENT AT IGNITION TIME...FALLING TOWARD 35 TO 40 PERCENT BY LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS DRIER AIR ALOFT MIXES DOWN TO THE SURFACE. WINDS INCREASING FROM THE SOUTHEAST AT 8 TO 12 MPH WITH A FEW LOCAL GUSTS TO 20 MPH. GUSTIER WINDS POSSIBLE AROUND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. .TODAY... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (10-20 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY (50-60 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING MOSTLY CLOUDY (70-80 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY (55-65 PERCENT). CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE MORNING. TEMPERATURE.........57 AT IGNITION...MAX 73. RH..................52 PERCENT AT IGNITION...MIN 38 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........WINDS EAST AT 6 MPH AT IGNITION...OTHERWISE LIGHT WINDS BECOMING SOUTHEAST 8 TO 12 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE MORNING. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHEAST 14 TO 21 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......600 FT AGL AT IGNITION...OTHERWISE 500-1600 FT AGL INCREASING TO 2800 FT AGL LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. HAINES INDEX........2 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH AT IGNITION...MAX 3. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (100) AT IGNITION. MAX...EXCELLENT (600). TIME (EDT) 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM SKY (%).........56 56 77 77 77 62 62 62 59 WEATHER COV.....CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC WEATHER TYPE....RW RW RW RW RW TEMP............54 57 60 62 66 70 72 71 71 RH..............52 50 48 48 45 41 38 39 39 20 FT WIND DIR..E E E SE SE SE SE SE SE 20 FT WIND SPD..6 6 6 7 7 7 8 8 8 20 FT WIND GUST.10 10 15 15 15 15 20 20 20 HAINES INDEX....2 2 2 2 3 3 3 3 3 SMOKE DISP......100 100 100 200 400 500 600 600 600 .TONIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (55-65 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING MOSTLY CLOUDY (70-80 PERCENT). CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS EARLY IN THE EVENING. CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AFTER MIDNIGHT. TEMPERATURE.........MIN 52. RH..................MAX 96 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 8 MPH UNTIL EARLY MORNING BECOMING LIGHT. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS AFTER MIDNIGHT. TIME (EDT) 6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM SKY (%).........59 59 78 78 78 78 78 78 73 73 73 73 WEATHER COV..... CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC WEATHER TYPE.... RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW TEMP............69 67 67 65 60 57 56 57 57 56 55 54 RH..............43 48 52 56 64 69 74 75 77 80 86 90 20 FT WIND DIR..SE SE SE SE SE SE SE SE SE SE SE SE 20 FT WIND SPD..7 7 6 6 6 6 6 5 5 5 4 4 20 FT WIND GUST.15 15 15 15 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 .THURSDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (80-90 PERCENT). CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE MORNING...THEN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY EARLY IN THE MORNING. TEMPERATURE.........MAX 75. RH..................MIN 53 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT WINDS BECOMING SOUTH 5 TO 7 MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS. TIME (EDT) 6 AM 8 AM 10 AM NOON 2 PM 4 PM SKY (%).........73 100 100 100 100 100 WEATHER COV.....CHANCE LIKELY LIKELY LIKELY LIKELY LIKELY WEATHER TYPE....RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR TEMP............53 55 63 70 74 73 RH..............96 93 72 59 53 55 20 FT WIND......SE 4 S 5 S 6 S 6 S 6 S 7 20 FT WIND GUST.10 10 10 15 15 15 $$ FORECASTER...JAMES KEYSOR REQUESTED BY...JOHN ELLIOTT TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED .TAG 20110511.SUMME.02/APX