FNUS71 KCTP 111120 FWSCTP SPOT FORECAST FOR LOCKE VALLEY RX BURN PA-RX-05201102...BOF, FD#5 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA 720 AM EDT WED MAY 11 2011 FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1000 EDT ON MAY 11. IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN STATE COLLEGE. .DISCUSSION... DRY CONDITIONS UNDER CONSIDERABLE SUNSHINE IS IN STORE FOR THE LOCAL AREA. WINDS WILL BE CALM TO EASTERLY AROUND 5 MPH. SOME LOCAL EFFECTS ARE POSSIBLE. RELATIVE HUMIDITYS WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 30S DUE TO THE LACK OF MOISTURE AT THE SURFACE AND THE WARM DAYTIME TEMPERATURES AND DEEP MIXING. MAX TEMPS SHOULD BE IN THE LOW 70S. RH/S SHOULD REACH WARNING CRITERIA BUT THERE IS NOT ENOUGH WIND DUE TO THE STRONG HIGH PRESSURE. RHS WILL RECOVER OVERNIGHT AND THE DECENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL LINGER INTO TOMORROW...ALLOWING FOR RHS TO BE IN THE 40S TOMORROW. .TODAY... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY. MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 72. MIN HUMIDITY........41 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS...BECOMING EAST 5 TO 6 MPH IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. LAL.................NO TSTMS. MIXING HEIGHT.......400-1900 FT AGL...INCREASING TO 4900-5400 FT AGL. TRANSPORT WINDS.....EAST 2 TO 7 MPH. HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. TIME (EDT) 10 AM NOON 2 PM 4 PM SKY (%).............31 28 25 25 WEATHER COV......... WEATHER TYPE........NONE NONE NONE NONE TEMP................62 66 70 72 RH..................55 47 44 41 20 FT WIND..........E 5 E 5 SE 6 E 6 20 FT WIND GUST..... MIX HGT (FT)........2800 4300 5200 5300 TRANSPORT WIND......SE 6 SE 5 E 5 E 6 LAL.................1 1 1 1 HAINES INDEX........4 5 5 5 .TONIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLEAR. MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 49. MAX HUMIDITY........85 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 6 MPH IN THE EVENING...BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE. LAL.................NO TSTMS. MIXING HEIGHT.......3000-4500 FT AGL...DECREASING TO 0-300 FT AGL. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHEAST 3 TO 6 MPH...BECOMING SOUTHWEST 1 TO 2 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT...THEN BECOMING EAST LATE. HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. TIME (EDT) 6 PM 8 PM 10 PM MIDNGT 2 AM 4 AM SKY (%).............25 25 22 17 14 19 WEATHER COV......... WEATHER TYPE........NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE TEMP................71 68 64 59 55 52 RH..................43 47 54 61 69 79 20 FT WIND..........E 6 SE 5 SE 5 S 3 SW 2 S 2 20 FT WIND GUST..... 5 MIX HGT (FT)........4500 3000 1000 BLW100 200 200 TRANSPORT WIND......E 6 E 6 SE 5 S 3 W 1 SE 1 LAL.................1 1 1 1 1 1 HAINES INDEX........5 5 5 5 4 4 .THURSDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY. MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 75. MIN HUMIDITY........47 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS...BECOMING SOUTHEAST 5 TO 7 MPH IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. LAL.................NO TSTMS. MIXING HEIGHT.......300-1700 FT AGL...INCREASING TO 2800-4600 FT AGL IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 2 TO 8 MPH. HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. TIME (EDT) 6 AM 8 AM 10 AM NOON 2 PM 4 PM SKY (%).............27 33 33 34 36 41 WEATHER COV......... WEATHER TYPE........NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE TEMP................50 54 61 66 70 72 RH..................89 82 66 55 49 47 20 FT WIND..........SE 1 E 1 SE 5 SE 6 SE 7 SE 7 20 FT WIND GUST..... 10 10 10 MIX HGT (FT)........300 900 2800 4200 4500 4600 TRANSPORT WIND......E 2 SE 3 SE 7 SE 8 SE 7 S 5 LAL.................1 1 1 1 1 1 HAINES INDEX........5 5 5 5 5 5 $$ FORECASTER...WFO CTP REQUESTED BY...MARK POTTER TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED .TAG 20110511.LOCKE.02/CTP