FNUS74 KEPZ 120128
FWSEPZ

FIRE WEATHER PLANNING FORECAST FOR MAYHILL...LNF
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
728 PM MDT WED MAY 11 2011

FORECAST IS BASED ON REQUEST TIME OF 1837 MDT ON MAY 11.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING...


.DISCUSSION...
A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH OR WIND SHIFT LINE CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM JUST
WEST OF TULAROSA TO NEAR DEMING.  THIS FEATURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
BURN AREA BETWEEN 8 PM AND 10 PM...AND MAY RESULT IN A BRIEF WIND
SHIFT FROM WEST-SOUTHWEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST.  WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO
GUST IN THE 25 TO 30 MPH RANGE UNTIL THE TROUGH PASSES...WITH LOCAL
TERRAIN-ENHANCED GUSTS APPROACHING 35 MPH. WINDS WILL SETTLE BACK TO
A GENERAL WESTERLY FLOW OVERNIGHT AND WILL DIMINISH...THOUGH DRAINAGE
FLOWS WILL CAUSE LOCAL VARIATIONS IN DIRECTION.  RH RECOVERY WILL
AGAIN BE LIMITED TONIGHT...WITH RH MAXING OUT AROUND 35%.

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SLOWLY SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA TOMORROW...BUT
WEAK IMPULSES EMBEDDED IN NORTHWEST FLOW WILL RESULT IN WEST-NORTHWEST
SURFACE WINDS STAYING ON THE BREEZY SIDE...WITH GUSTS APPROACHING 25
MPH DURING THE AFTERNOON.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT FOR MOST OF FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT A WEAK BACKDOOR
COLD FRONT WILL BRING NORTHEAST WINDS TO THE REGION AFTER MIDNIGHT.
BEHIND THE FRONT...DEWPOINTS WILL ONLY RISE MARGINALLY...REACHING
THE MID/UPPER 20S.  A STRONGER SOUTHEAST FLOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
SATURDAY...AND DEWPOINTS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY RISE TO THE LOWER
30S.


.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........CLEAR (0-15 PERCENT).
CWR.................0 PERCENT.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....41-46.
MAX HUMIDITY........30-38 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........WEST-SOUTHWEST 15 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS 25 TO 30
                    MPH EARLY.  BRIEF WEST0-NORTHWEST WIND SHIFT
                    EXPECTED BETWEEN 8 PM AND 10 PM MDT.  THEN WINDS
                    SETTLING TO WEST 10 TO 15 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT.
MIXING HEIGHT.......9800 FT AGL DECREASING TO 200-400 FT AGL IN THE
                    LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST AROUND 13 KNOTS.
HAINES INDEX........3 UNTIL MIDNIGHT...THEN 2.


.THURSDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY (0-10 PERCENT).
CWR.................0 PERCENT.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....67-72.
MIN HUMIDITY........9-14 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........WEST-NORTHWEST 12 TO 15 MPH...WITH GUSTS AROUND
                    25 MPH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......MAX 9800 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST AROUND 20 KNOTS.
VENTILATION RATE....196,000 KNOT-FEET (EXCELLENT)
HAINES INDEX........2-3 IN THE MORNING.
                    4 IN THE AFTERNOON.


.THURSDAY NIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........CLEAR (5-15 PERCENT).
CWR.................0 PERCENT.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....44-49.
MAX HUMIDITY........35-40 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........WEST-NORTHWEST AROUND 10 MPH EARLY...SHIFTING
                    TO THE NORTHEAST 10 TO 15 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT.
HAINES INDEX........3.


$$

FORECASTER...HARDIMAN
REQUESTED BY...NM ADC
REASON FOR REQUEST...WILDFIRE
.TAG 20110511.MAYHI.01/EPZ