FNUS73 KGRR 111249
FWSGRR

FIRE WEATHER PLANNING FORECAST FOR FIELD X...MI DNR
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
849 AM EDT WED MAY 11 2011

FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1130 EDT ON MAY 11.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...
THE FORECAST WAS RECENTLY UPDATED FOR HIGHER PROBABILITIES OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING. THERE IS A LARGE AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS
CURRENTLY OVER NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN WHICH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
SOUTHEAST AND OVERSPREAD THE AREA OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. TIMING TOOLS
SUGGEST THE STORMS WILL ARRIVE IN THE VICINITY OF THE FIELD X SPOT
AROUND 11 AM.


.TODAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........VARIABLY CLOUDY (60-70 PERCENT). SCATTERED SHOWERS
                    AND THUNDERSTORMS.
TEMPERATURE.........69 AT IGNITION...MAX 77.
RH..................50 PERCENT AT IGNITION...MIN 49 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........WINDS SOUTHEAST AT 13 MPH AT
                    IGNITION...OTHERWISE SOUTHEAST WINDS 6 TO 11
                    MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR
                    THUNDERSTORMS.
MIXING WINDS........SOUTH 15 TO 21 MPH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......1600 FT AGL AT IGNITION...OTHERWISE 4500-5000
                    FT AGL.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH AT IGNITION...MAX 4.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....100-400 (POOR TO GOOD) INCREASING TO 600-1000
                    (EXCELLENT TO EXCELLENT) IN THE AFTERNOON.

TIME (EDT)      11 AM  1 PM   3 PM   5 PM   7 PM
SKY (%).........74     74     60     60     60
WEATHER COV.....SCTTRD SCTTRD CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE
WEATHER TYPE....TSTM   TSTM   TSTM   TSTM   TSTM
TEMP............66     71     75     76     74
RH..............49     51     54     56     59
20 FT WIND......SE 10  SE 10  SE 10  SE 9   SE 8
20 FT GUST......20     20     20     15     15
HAINES INDEX....3      3      3      4      3

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (75-85 PERCENT). CHANCE OF
                    SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
TEMPERATURE.........MIN 59.
RH..................MAX 87 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTH WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC
                    WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.
MIXING WINDS........SOUTHEAST 9 TO 18 MPH DECREASING TO AROUND 7
                    MPH TOWARD DAYBREAK.
MIXING HEIGHT.......2800-3300 FT AGL DECREASING TO 700-1200 FT AGL.
HAINES INDEX........2 TO 4 OR OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH TO OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR
                    LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....400-600 (GOOD TO EXCELLENT) DECREASING TO 0-100
                    (POOR TO POOR).

$$
FORECASTER...MEADE
REQUESTED BY...RANDY MCKENZIE
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20110511.FIELD.01/GRR