FNUS72 KJAX 111138
FWSJAX

SPOT FORECAST FOR HONEY PRAIRIE SUPPORT...FL DIVISION OF FORESTRY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
738 AM EDT WED MAY 11 2011

FORECAST IS BASED ON REQUEST TIME OF 0800 EDT ON MAY 11.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...A WEAK BACK DOOR FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH INTO THE AREA
TODAY BUT LIKELY REMAINING NORTH OF THE BURN AREA. ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHEAST GEORGIA
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. ISOLATED STORMS ARE
POSSIBLE ACROSS INLAND AREAS ON THURSDAY.

RH VALUES ARE FORECAST TO BE NEAR CRITICALLY LOW VALUES FOR BRIEF
DURATIONS THIS AFTERNOON AND THURSDAY AFTERNOON. SUSTAINED WINDS
WILL BE LESS THAN 15 MPH BUT MAY GUST TO NEAR 20 MPH EACH AFTERNOON.
INITIALLY...WINDS WILL BE WEST NORTH-WEST THEN BECOMING MORE WESTERLY
IN THE AFTERNOON. DISPERSION INDICES WILL BE HIGH TODAY...WITH
VALUES JUST UNDER 75 ACROSS MOST INLAND AREAS.

.REST OF TODAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY TO PARTLY SUNNY (25-35 PERCENT). AREAS OF SMOKE.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 94.
MIN HUMIDITY........33 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........WEST WINDS 7 TO 9 MPH. GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH EARLY
                    IN THE AFTERNOON.
LAL.................1.
MIXING HEIGHT.......1500 FT AGL INCREASING TO 5400-6900 FT AGL.
MIXING WINDS........NORTHWEST 10 TO 14 MPH.
DISPERSION INDEX....72.
CHANCE OF PCPN......10 PERCENT.

TIME (EDT)      8 AM   10 AM  NOON   2 PM   4 PM
SKY (%).........30     30     30     30     30
WEATHER COV.....AREAS  AREAS  AREAS  AREAS  AREAS
WEATHER TYPE....SMOKE  SMOKE  SMOKE  SMOKE  SMOKE
TEMP............70     82     90     93     94
RH..............88     54     39     33     33
20 FT WIND......W 8    W 9    W 9    W 9    W 8
20 FT WIND GUST.10     12     15     20     15
MIX HGT (FT)....1500   1900   4200   6900   6900
TRANSPORT WIND..W 10   W 10   W 14   W 14   W 14
DISPERSION INDX.33     35     59     66     72
CHC OF PCPN (%).10     10     10     10     10
LAL.............1      1      1      1      1

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (25-35 PERCENT). AREAS OF SMOKE.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 66.
MAX HUMIDITY........97 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........WEST WINDS 5 TO 7 MPH EARLY IN THE EVENING
                    BECOMING LIGHT.
LAL.................1.
MIXING HEIGHT.......4000-5400 FT AGL DECREASING TO 200-2100 FT AGL
                    LATE IN THE EVENING.
MIXING WINDS........NORTHWEST 5 TO 12 MPH.
CHANCE OF PCPN......10 PERCENT.
LVORI...............5.

TIME (EDT)      6 PM   8 PM   10 PM  MIDNGT 2 AM   4 AM
SKY (%).........30     30     30     30     30     30
WEATHER COV.....AREAS  AREAS  AREAS  AREAS  AREAS  AREAS
WEATHER TYPE....SMOKE  SMOKE  SMOKE  SMOKE  SMOKE  SMOKE
TEMP............90     83     77     73     71     68
RH..............38     48     62     71     81     89
20 FT WIND......W 7    W 5    W 3    W 2    W 1    W 1
20 FT WIND GUST.15     10     5      5      5      5
MIX HGT (FT)....5400   4000   4000   2100   200    200
TRANSPORT WIND..NW 12  N 8    N 8    NW 7   W 6    W 6
LVORI...........5      5      5      5      5      5
CHC OF PCPN (%).10     10     10     10     10     10
LAL.............1      1      1      1      1      1

.THURSDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (35-45 PERCENT). AREAS OF SMOKE
                    EARLY IN THE MORNING.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 95.
MIN HUMIDITY........34 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT WINDS BECOMING NORTHEAST 5 TO 7 MPH.
LAL.................1.
MIXING HEIGHT.......900-1500 FT AGL INCREASING TO 5600-7300 FT AGL.
MIXING WINDS........EAST 3 TO 8 MPH.
DISPERSION INDEX....35.
CHANCE OF PCPN......10 PERCENT.

$$
FORECASTER...SHASHY
REQUESTED BY...SEAN LUCHS
TYPE OF REQUEST...WILDFIRE
.TAG 20110511.HONEY.01/JAX