FNUS74 KLUB 111252 FWSLUB FIRE WEATHER PLANNING FORECAST FOR DICKENS UPDATE...DICKENS COMPLEX COMMAND NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX 752 AM CDT WED MAY 11 2011 FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 0750 CDT ON MAY 11. IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. ...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY TO 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING... .DISCUSSION... ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MOVED ACROSS DICKENS COUNTY EARLIER THIS MORNING. HOWEVER IT IS UNKNOWN HOW THE RAINFALL WILL IMPACT AMBIENT FIRE DANGER...AS AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM FROM THE WEST WILL INDUCE WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS AT THE 20-FOOT LEVEL TO INCREASE TO AROUND 25 MPH BY MID-DAY TODAY. TEMPERATURES WILL NOT BE AS WARM AS SEVERAL DAYS PAST...HOWEVER THE SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL PROMOTE RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES TO FALL INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS BY MID-DAY. TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO SKIRT NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE CENTRAL PLAINS...AS WINDS COMMENCE TO VEER TO A MORE WEST COMPONENT. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO HOLD OFF MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTH PLAINS UNTIL LATE THURSDAY NIGHT...AND AS SUCH...A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM NORTHEAST OF THE REGION WILL INDUCE BREEZY WEST WINDS BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. 20-FOOT WINDS ANTICIPATED TO BE LESS BREEZY /NEARING 20 MPH/ AND TEMPERATURES ONLY RELATIVELY WARM...HOWEVER RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL STILL BE CAPABLE OF FALLING BELOW 15 PERCENT BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THUS...ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL ENSUE. .TODAY... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (25-35 PERCENT). SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE MORNING...THEN SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE MORNING. MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 91. MIN HUMIDITY........7 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........BREEZY. SOUTHWEST WINDS 13 TO 22 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 35 MPH INCREASING TO 23 TO 26 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 40 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. CWR.................40 PERCENT DECREASING TO 0 PERCENT IN THE AFTERNOON. LAL.................2 UNTIL 1300...THEN 1. HAINES INDEX........3 TO 5 OR OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH TO OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. MIXING HEIGHT.......100-400 FT AGL INCREASING TO 12900-13800 FT AGL. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 12 TO 16 MPH INCREASING TO 24 TO 31 MPH IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. TIME (CDT) 7 AM 9 AM 11 AM 1 PM 3 PM 5 PM SKY (%).........49 38 23 12 13 13 WEATHER COV.....S CHC S CHC S CHC WEATHER TYPE....RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR NONE NONE NONE TEMP............69 74 80 85 88 90 RH..............76 44 22 12 8 7 20 FT WIND......S 10 SW 13 SW 15 W 18 SW 19 SW 19 20 FT WIND GUST.20 30 35 40 40 40 HAINES INDEX....5 4 3 4 4 4 .TONIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLEAR (10-20 PERCENT). MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 53. MAX HUMIDITY........25 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........BREEZY. WEST WINDS 18 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 40 MPH DECREASING TO 10 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 25 MPH IN THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. CWR.................10 PERCENT. LAL.................1. HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. MIXING HEIGHT.......12800-14000 FT AGL DECREASING TO 0-200 FT AGL. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 17 TO 26 MPH BECOMING NORTHWEST 6 TO 12 MPH IN THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. TIME (CDT) 6 PM 8 PM 10 PM MIDNGT 2 AM 4 AM SKY (%).........14 14 13 12 12 13 WEATHER COV..... WEATHER TYPE....NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE TEMP............89 83 73 67 63 59 RH..............7 7 10 12 15 18 20 FT WIND......SW 18 W 15 W 11 W 9 W 7 NW 7 20 FT WIND GUST.40 35 25 20 15 15 HAINES INDEX....4 4 4 4 4 4 .THURSDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY (15-25 PERCENT). MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 88. MIN HUMIDITY........10 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........WEST WINDS 12 TO 20 MPH. GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH. CWR.................0 PERCENT. LAL.................1. HAINES INDEX........3 TO 4 OR OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH TO OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. MIXING HEIGHT.......0-100 FT AGL INCREASING TO 14700-16400 FT AGL. TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 8 TO 16 MPH INCREASING TO 21 TO 28 MPH IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. TIME (CDT) 6 AM 8 AM 10 AM NOON 2 PM 4 PM SKY (%).........13 14 16 19 22 24 WEATHER COV..... WEATHER TYPE....NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE TEMP............57 58 68 76 83 87 RH..............22 23 17 13 11 10 20 FT WIND......W 8 W 8 W 11 W 14 W 14 W 13 20 FT WIND GUST.15 15 25 25 30 25 HAINES INDEX....3 3 3 3 3 4 $$ FORECASTER...BOWSER REQUESTED BY...LEE JONES TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED .TAG 20110511.DICKE.01/LUB