FNUS73 KAPX 121524 FWSAPX SPOT FORECAST FOR SUMMERS N WILBUR RX...USFS NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI 1124 AM EDT THU MAY 12 2011 FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1200 EDT ON MAY 12. IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. .DISCUSSION...A COLD FRONT...STRETCHING FROM WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR TO CENTRAL IOWA EARLY THIS MORNING...WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT. THIS FEATURE WILL KEEP OUR WEATHER ON THE WET AND UNSETTLED SIDE. THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY THIS AFTERNOON. THERE IS A LOW PROBABILITY THAT THE LAKE HURON LAKE BREEZE MAY ENCROACH ON THE BURN SITE...WHICH WOULD SHIFT WINDS TO THE EAST THIS AFTERNOON. WITH THE RECENT RAINS...RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL REMAIN ABOVE CRITICAL THRESHOLDS. .TODAY... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (50-65 PERCENT). NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING IN THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURE.........71 AT IGNITION...MAX 78. RH..................57 PERCENT AT IGNITION...MIN 48 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........WINDS SOUTHEAST AT 6 MPH AT IGNITION...BECOMING SOUTH 6 TO 8 MPH. LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE NEAR THUNDERSTORMS. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 7 TO 16 MPH SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHWEST 12 TO 18 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. MIXING HEIGHT.......3000 FT AGL AT IGNITION...INCREASING TO 7200 FT AGL. HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH AT IGNITION...MAX 4. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....GOOD (500) AT IGNITION. MAX...EXCELLENT (1200). TIME (EDT) 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM SKY (%).........56 56 62 62 62 70 WEATHER COV..... SCT SCT NUM WEATHER TYPE.... RW RW RW TEMP............70 72 74 76 77 78 RH..............68 61 57 52 52 52 20 FT WIND DIR..SW S SE SE S S 20 FT WIND SPD..5 6 7 7 7 6 20 FT WIND GUST.15 15 15 15 15 15 SMOKE DISP......400 700 100012001100900 .TONIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (80-90 PERCENT). NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY IN THE EVENING. TEMPERATURE.........MIN 61. RH..................MAX 93 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........SOUTH WINDS AROUND 6 MPH EARLY IN THE EVENING BECOMING LIGHT. LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE NEAR THUNDERSTORMS. TIME (EDT) 6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM SKY (%).........80 80 78 78 78 78 78 78 76 76 76 76 WEATHER COV.....NUM NUM SCT SCT SCT SCT SCT SCT SCT SCT SCT SCT WEATHER TYPE....RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW TEMP............77 76 74 72 69 67 65 63 61 61 61 61 RH..............56 60 66 71 78 81 87 90 93 90 87 87 20 FT WIND DIR..S SE SE SE E E E SE SE S S SW 20 FT WIND SPD..6 4 3 2 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 20 FT WIND GUST.10 10 5 5 5 $$ FORECASTER...NICK SCHWARTZ REQUESTED BY...JOHN ELLIOTT TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED .TAG 20110512.SUMME.01/APX