FNUS75 KMSO 122151
FWSMSO

SPOT FORECAST FOR CAYUSE EMB
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MISSOULA MT
351 PM MDT THU MAY 12 2011

FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1530 MDT ON MAY 12.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS WILL PERSIST AROUND THE BURN
SITE BEFORE DISSIPATING AROUND MIDNIGHT MDT AS A WEAK SURFACE FRONT
MOVES THROUGH WESTERN MONTANA. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL REBOUND
BACK ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY. HOWEVER...LINGERING
MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND AN UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE WILL CONTINUE TO
SUPPORT SCATTERED CUMULUS AND SHOWER DEVELOPMENT. FURTHER
STRENGTHENING OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE CONTINENTAL
DIVIDE WILL INTRODUCE AN EASTERLY SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT
BEGINNING LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THESE WINDS WILL
STABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE AND SHUTTING OFF MOST SHOWER ACTIVITY
LATE FRIDAY NIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.

.TODAY...

CWR.................30 PERCENT.
MIN HUMIDITY........48-54 PERCENT TOP...41-45 PERCENT BOTTOM.

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY. RAIN SHOWERS LIKELY IN THE
                    EARLY EVENING ENDING AFTER 2100 MDT.
CWR.................30 PERCENT.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....33-38.
MAX HUMIDITY........82-87 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........WEST WINDS 5-9 MPH IN THE EVENING WITH SOME STRONGER
                    OUTFLOW BREEZES FROM PASSING SHOWERS BECOMING
                    VARIABLE 2-5 MPH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......300 FT AGL.
MIXING WINDS........WEST-NORTHWEST 5 MPH.

.FRIDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY IN THE MORNING...TURNING MOSTLY CLOUDY
                    IN THE AFTERNOON. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS
                    AND THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 1700 MDT.
CWR.................10 PERCENT.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....60-65 AT TOP...68-73 AT BOTTOM.
MIN HUMIDITY........28-33 PERCENT TOP...22-27 PERCENT BOTTOM.
WIND (20 FT)........VARIABLE 3-6 MPH BECOMING EAST-SOUTHEAST 7-10 MPH
                    IN THE AFTERNOON.
MIXING HEIGHT.......3500 FT AGL.
MIXING WINDS........EAST 10 MPH.

.FRIDAY NIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
                    THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EVENING. DECREASING CLOUDS
                    AFTER MIDNIGHT.
CWR.................10 PERCENT.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....38-43.
MAX HUMIDITY........74-79 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........EAST WINDS 7-11 MPH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......500 FT AGL.
MIXING WINDS........EAST 10 MPH.

$$
FORECASTER...NOLTE/MEAD
REQUESTED BY...NED WINEBRENNER
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20110512.CAYUS.01/MSO