FNUS75 KMSO 112321
FWSMSO

SPOT FORECAST FOR FRENCHTOWN FACE 21
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MISSOULA MT
521 PM MDT WED MAY 11 2011

FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1200 MDT ON MAY 12.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...AN UPPER LEVEL WEATHER DISTURBANCE AND ASSOCIATED
SURFACE FRONT WILL IMPACT THE FIRE THURSDAY. THE SURFACE FRONT
WILL PUSH THROUGH THE FIRE EARLY THURSDAY MORNING...TURNING
SURFACE WINDS SOUTHWEST. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL JUST EAST
OF THE FIRE AND MAY SERVE AS A FOCUSING MECHANISM FOR ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON
WITH MAX HEATING...LINGERING INTO THE EVENING. SOME BREEZY WEST
TO NORTHWEST WINDS FROM AN INCREASED PRESSURE GRADIENT IS EXPECTED
MID AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING. SURFACE RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER
THE FIRE LATE THURSDAY EVENING ENDING THE SHOWERS AND DECREASING
CLOUDS BY FRIDAY MORNING. FRIDAY WILL SEE THE WARMEST BUT
CONTINUED UNSTABLE DAY AS A SURFACE THERMAL BOUNDARY BUILDS OVER
WESTERN MONTANA. ENOUGH LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THURSDAY
MAY LEAD TO AFTERNOON BUILDUPS WITH SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

.THURSDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS MAINLY
                    AFTER 1400.
CWR.................20 PERCENT.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....57-62.
MIN HUMIDITY........49-54 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH BECOMING WEST/NORTHWEST
                    9-14 MPH AFTER 1400.
MIXING HEIGHT.......2200 FT AGL.
MIXING WINDS........SOUTHWEST 5 MPH.

.THURSDAY NIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........CHANCE OF EARLY EVENING SHOWERS. MOSTLY CLOUDY
                    THEN BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY.
CWR.................30 PERCENT THROUGH 2000...DECREASING TO LESS THAN
                    10 PERCENT.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....37-42.
MAX HUMIDITY........81-86 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS 9-14 MPH DECREASING TO AROUND 5
                    MPH AFTER SUNSET.
MIXING HEIGHT.......300 FT AGL.
MIXING WINDS........NORTHWEST 5 MPH.

.FRIDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY IN THE MORNING WITH INCREASING
                    CLOUDS IN THE AFTERNOON. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
                    THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON.
CWR.................10 PERCENT.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....66-71.
MIN HUMIDITY........29-34 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........UPSLOPE 2-5 MPH BECOMING SOUTHEAST 6-10
                    MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.
MIXING HEIGHT.......4000 FT AGL.
MIXING WINDS........SOUTHEAST 10 MPH.

$$
FORECASTER...MEAD
REQUESTED BY...TYLER BROTHERS
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20110512.FRENC.01/MSO