FNUS76 KLOX 122212
FWSLOX

SPOT FORECAST FOR RANCHO 3...LAC
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
312 PM PDT THU MAY 12 2011

FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 0900 PDT ON MAY 13.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...A WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO THE SOUTHWEST
OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA WILL BRING AN INFLUX OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS
THE REGION ON FRIDAY. AT THIS TIME...IT DOES NOT APPEAR THERE WILL BE
ANY THREAT OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE BURN AREA...HOWEVER THERE
IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE ADJACENT
MOUNTAINS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR DRY LIGHTNING. A DEEPER LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL AFFECT THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND...BRINGING A
COOLING TREND WITH HIGHER HUMIDITIES. THERE IS ALSO A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY ACROSS THE BURN
AREA.


.FRIDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY...BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY IN THE
                    AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURE.........63-66 AT IGNITION...MAX 76-79.
RH..................35-45 PERCENT AT IGNITION...MIN 35 PERCENT.
EYE LEVEL WINDS.....VARIABLE 1 TO 3 MPH...BECOMING SOUTHWEST 4-7
                    MPH WITH GUSTS TO 15 MPH AFTER 1300 HOURS.
RIDGETOP WIND.......VARIABLE 2 TO 4 MPH AT IGNITION...BECOMING
                    SOUTHWEST 8 TO 14 MPH AFTER 1200 HOUR.
                    GUSTS TO 25 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.
MIXING HEIGHT.......AOB 800 FT AGL AT IGNITION...INCREASING TO
                    4000 FT AGL IN THE AFTERNOON.

TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 4 TO 12 MPH.


.FRIDAY NIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLEAR.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....51-54.
MAX RH..............65-75 PERCENT.
EYE LEVEL WINDS.....
RIDGETOP WINDS......SOUTHWEST WINDS 6 TO 12 MPH WITH LOCAL GUSTS TO
                    25 MPH IN THE EVENING...BECOMING VARIABLE 3 TO 6
                    MPH AFTER 2000 HOURS.
MIXING HEIGHT.......4000 FT AGL IN THE EVENING...THEN LOWERING TO AOB
                    500 FT LATE.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 5 TO 9 MPH SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHEAST
                    AROUND 3 MPH LATE IN THE NIGHT.

$$
FORECASTER...KAPLAN
REQUESTED BY...LARRY TUCKER
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20110513.RANCH.01/LOX