FNUS75 KMSO 130043
FWSMSO

SPOT FORECAST FOR MCGINNIS 5
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MISSOULA MT
643 PM MDT THU MAY 12 2011

FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1300 MDT ON MAY 13.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND SURFACE THERMAL BOUNDARY WILL
REBOUND OVER THE FIRE FRIDAY. AT THE SAME TIME...A RIDGE EAST OF
THE DIVIDE WILL DEEPEN...RESULTING IN A EAST TO WEST PRESSURE
GRADIENT AND EASTERLY WINDS IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENING. GIVEN THE
EAST WEST ORIENTATION OF THE LITTLE THOMPSON RIVER
DRAINAGE...COULD SEE SOME CHANNELING OF WINDS...ALLOWING FOR
SLIGHTLY HIGHER SPEEDS. INSTABILITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE SURFACE
THERMAL BOUNDARY AND LINGERING LOW/MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL KEEP A
THREAT FOR ISOLATED LATE DAY SHOWERS NEAR THE FIRE. MORE STABLE
AIR WILL MOVE OVER THE FIRE FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT A TIGHT ENOUGH
GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO KEEP WINDS FROM DECOUPLING. SATURDAY WILL
BE THE DRIEST DAY AS THE THERMAL BOUNDARY SHIFTS WEST...FOCUSING
PRECIPITATION AWAY FROM THE FIRE.

.TODAY...

CWR.................LESS THAN 10 PERCENT.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....69-74.
MIN HUMIDITY........22-27 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........VARIABLE 2-5 MPH BECOMING EAST 6-8 MPH IN THE
                    AFTERNOON.

.TONIGHT...

CWR.................LESS THAN 10 PERCENT.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....42-47.
MAX HUMIDITY........84-89 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........EAST WINDS 6-8 MPH.

.SATURDAY...

CWR.................0 PERCENT.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....70-75.
MIN HUMIDITY........19-24 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........EAST AROUND 5 MPH.

$$
FORECASTER...MEAD
REQUESTED BY...TRAVIS PFISTER
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20110513.MCGIN.03/MSO