FNUS75 KRIW 121742
FWSRIW

SPOT FORECAST FOR LAVA CREEK RX...USFS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
1142 AM MDT THU MAY 12 2011

FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1000 MDT ON MAY 13.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...

HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BE OVER THE NORTHWEST WYOMING FRIDAY.
A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL CLIP THE AREA IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
BRINGING ISOLATED SHOWERS...WITH AN OUTSIDE CHANCE OF A
THUNDERSTORM IN THE EVENING. WINDS WILL BE RELATIVELY LIGHT AND
TERRAIN DRIVEN. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING
WITH EAST WINDS. SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL INCREASE SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY WITH THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE.

...THUNDERSTORMS IMPLY STRONG GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS...
...HAINES INDEX IS HIGH LEVEL HAINES BOTH DAY AND NIGHT...

FORECASTER...T.BAKER

.FRIDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (40-50 PERCENT)...ISOLATED SHOWERS IN
                    THE LATE AFTERNOON.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....64-67.
MIN HUMIDITY........25-30 PERCENT.
20 FOOT WINDS.......LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH 1100...THEN
                    UPSLOPE/UPVALLEY 5-9 MPH.
LAL.................1.
CHC OF WETTING RAIN.5 PERCENT.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......700 FT AGL INCREASING TO 8000 FT AGL
                    IN THE AFTERNOON.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....LIGHT AND VARIABLE IN THE MORNING...THEN
                    VARIABLE AROUND 5 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (3500 KNOT-FT) IN THE MORNING...THEN
                    FAIR (40000 KNOT-FT) AROUND NOON.

.FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5...
.FRIDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EVENING. LOWS IN THE LOWER 30S.
EAST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH.
.SATURDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE LOWER 30S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 60S.
EAST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH.
.SUNDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY WITH SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS...SNOW
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE LOWER 30S. HIGHS
IN THE UPPER 50S. WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 MPH.
.MONDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY WITH SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS...SNOW
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S. HIGHS
IN THE LOWER 50S. WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 MPH.

$$

FORECASTER...T.BAKER
REQUESTED BY...PANABAKER
REASON FOR REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20110513.LAVAC.01/RIW