FNUS75 KGJT 132208
FWSGJT

SPOT FORECAST FOR QUAKIE...BLM
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
408 PM MDT FRI MAY 13 2011

FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1200 MDT ON MAY 14.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...A FAST MOVING DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE UP FROM THE
SOUTHWEST ON SATURDAY AND UNDERCUT A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE
AREA. AS A RESULT INSTABILITY WILL INCREASE BY LATE MORNING WITH A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING DURING THE
AFTERNOON. DUE TO THE MOISTURE IN THE LOWER LAYER OF THE
ATMOSPHERE...GUSTY WINDS WILL BE EXPECTED FROM ANY CONVECTION THAT
DOES DEVELOP. DRIER CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ON SUNDAY AND THE
RIDGE AGAIN TAKES CONTROL.


.SATURDAY (UNTIL SUNSET)...

SKY/WEATHER.........INCREASING CLOUDS...PARTLY CLOUDY (50-60%) EARLY
                    IN THE DAY...THEN BECOMING MOSTLY CLOUDY (70-80%).
                    VIRGA OR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE BY 1300...
                    WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INCREASING
                    TO SCATTERED BY MID AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EARLY
                    EVENING.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....62-66 F.
MIN HUMIDITY........22-26%.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTH 5-10 MPH...INCREASING TO 12-18 WITH BY NOON
                    BY NOON WITH GUST TO AROUND 30 MPH DEVELOPING.
                    GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR ANY
                    CONVECTION.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR UNTIL 0900...THEN INCREASING TO
                    EXCELLENT BY NOON.
HAINES INDEX........5 MODERATE.
LAL.................1 UNTIL 1200...THEN 2. LAL 4 AFTER 1500.
MIXING HEIGHT.......1500 FT AGL UNTIL 0830...INCREASING TO 9800 FT
                    AGL IN THE AFTERNOON.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 20 MPH...BECOMING MORE SOUTHWEST LATE IN
                    THE AFTERNOON.

.SATURDAY NIGHT (AFTER SUNSET)...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (40-50%). ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
                    THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL MIDNIGHT.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....30-35 F.
MAX HUMIDITY........55-60%.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS 13 MPH SHIFTING TO THE
                    SOUTHEAST 5 MPH IN THE LATE EVENING AND EARLY
                    MORNING...THEN SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHWEST EARLY
                    IN THE MORNING. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS
                    EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EVENING.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (3600-10000 KNOT-FT).
HAINES INDEX........5 MODERATE.
LAL.................2 UNTIL MIDNIGHT...THEN LAL 1.
MIXING HEIGHT.......1500 FT AGL...WITH BETTER MIXING NEAR SHOWERS
                    AND THUNDERSTORMS.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 10 MPH.

.SUNDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (10-20%).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....62-66 F.
MIN HUMIDITY........17-22%.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS 5-10 MPH UNTIL 1100...THEN
                    INCREASING TO 12-18 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 25 MPH
                    IN THE AFTERNOON.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR UNTIL 1000...THEN INCREASING TO VERY GOOD
                    DURING THE AFTERNOON.
HAINES INDEX........4 LOW.
LAL.................1.
MIXING HEIGHT.......1000 FT AGL UNTIL 0900...THEN INCREASING TO
                    7800 FT AGL IN AFTERNOON.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 16 MPH...INCREASING TO 25 MPH IN THE
                    AFTERNOON.

$$
FORECASTER...ELLEN HEFFERNAN
REQUESTED BY...BRAD PIETRUSZKA
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20110514.QUAKI.01/GJT