FNUS75 KGJT 141748
FWSGJT

SPOT FORECAST FOR QUAKIE...BLM
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1148 AM MDT SAT MAY 14 2011

FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1200 MDT ON MAY 14.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...AN AREA OF CLOUDS WILL PASS OVER THE BURN SITE
THROUGH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORMS. THEN THE WARMING AT THE SURFACE BEHIND THIS BAND
CAUSED BY INCREASED SUNSHINE...WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER ROUND OF
CONVECTION BY MID AFTERNOON. THE ATMOSPHERE WILL STABILIZE BY MID
EVENING AS AN UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVES EAST/NORTHEAST OF THE AREA.
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE ON SUNDAY AS THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS
EAST AND LOW PRESSURE STRENGTHENS OVER THE WESTERN U.S.

.TODAY (UNTIL SUNSET)...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (70-80%) WITH BREAKS IN THE
                    CLOUDS AT TIMES. A PERIOD OF CLEARING IN THE
                    EARLY AFTERNOON...THEN CLOUDS WILL REDEVELOP BY
                    BY MID AFTERNOON. WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
                    THUNDERSTORMS.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....60-65 F.
MIN HUMIDITY........24-28%.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST 10-15 MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS
                    EXPECTED NEAR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....GOOD...INCREASING TO EXCELLENT IN THE AFTERNOON.
HAINES INDEX........5 MODERATE.
LAL.................3.
MIXING HEIGHT.......INCREASING TO 9800 FT AGL IN THE AFTERNOON.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 20 MPH.

.TONIGHT (AFTER SUNSET)...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (30-40%). ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
                    THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL 2200. CLEARING AFTER
                    MIDNIGHT.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....32-27 F.
MAX HUMIDITY........50-55%.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTH WINDS 5 MPH UNTIL AROUND 2200...THEN
                    SHIFTING TO THE EAST. BECOMING SOUTHWEST
                    TOWARDS MORNING AND INCREASING TO 5-10 MPH.
                    GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR
                    THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EVENING.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR...EXCEPT BETTER MIXING NEAR SHOWERS AND
                    THUNDERSTORMS.
HAINES INDEX........5 MODERATE.
LAL.................2 UNTIL 2200...THEN 1.
MIXING HEIGHT.......1500 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....EAST 8 MPH...THEN BECOMING SOUTHWEST 10 MPH
                    AFTER MIDNIGHT.

.SUNDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY (0-10%) IN THE MORNING...THEN BECOMING
                    PARTLY CLOUDY (30-40%).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....62-66 F.
MIN HUMIDITY........17-22%.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS 5-10 MPH UNTIL 1100...THEN
                    INCREASING TO 12-18 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 25 MPH
                    IN THE AFTERNOON.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR UNTIL 1000...THEN INCREASING TO VERY GOOD
                    DURING THE AFTERNOON.
HAINES INDEX........4 LOW.
LAL.................1.
MIXING HEIGHT.......1000 FT AGL UNTIL 0900...THEN INCREASING TO
                    7800 FT AGL IN AFTERNOON.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 16 MPH...INCREASING TO 25 MPH IN THE
                    AFTERNOON.

$$
FORECASTER...ELLEN HEFFERNAN
REQUESTED BY...BRAD PIETRUSZKA
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20110514.QUAKI.01/GJT