FNUS75 KGJT 160051
FWSGJT

SPOT FORECAST FOR QUAKIE...USFS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
651 PM MDT SUN MAY 15 2011

FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1830 MDT ON MAY 15.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM NOON TO 9 PM MDT MONDAY FOR
STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITY...

.DISCUSSION...DRY SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN ON MONDAY AHEAD
OF THE NEXT PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE WEST. RED FLAG
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THE BURN SITE MONDAY AFTERNOON AS AMPLE
SURFACE HEATING ENCOURAGES MIXING. A COLD FRONT REACHES THE BURN AREA
TUESDAY

.MONDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (10-20%) UNTIL 1300...THEN BECOMING
                    PARTLY CLOUDY (30-40%).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....63-66 F.
MIN HUMIDITY........13-16%.
20-FOOT WINDS.......DOWNSLOPE 3-5 MPH UNTIL 0930...THEN SOUTHWEST
                    5-10 MPH INCREASING TO 10-13 MPH AFTER 1200 WITH
                    GUSTS TO 30 MPH. AFTER 1500...SOUTHWEST 14-18 MPH
                    WITH GUSTS TO 40 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR UNTIL 0930...THEN FAIR BECOMING EXCELLENT
                    BY 1400.
HAINES INDEX........4 LOW.
LAL.................1.
MIXING HEIGHT.......2500 FT AGL BY 0930...INCREASING TO 9000 FT AGL
                    BY 1500. EXPECT SMOKE TO BE SHEARED TO THE
                    NORTHEAST BEFORE REACHING MAXIMUM MIXING HEIGHT.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 25 MPH AFTER 0930 INCREASING TO 35 MPH BY
                    1500.

.MONDAY NIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (50-60%).
MIN TEMPERATURE.....35-40 F.
MAX HUMIDITY........50-58%.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST 14-18 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 35 MPH UNTIL
                    2000...THEN DECREASING TO 10-15 MPH BECOMING
                    DOWNSLOPE 3-6 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....EXCELLENT AT 1800 DECREASING TO GOOD BY 2100
                    AND POOR BY MIDNIGHT.
HAINES INDEX........3 VERY LOW.
LAL.................1.
MIXING HEIGHT.......8000 FT AGL AT 1800 DECREASING TO 4000 FT AGL
                    BY 2100 AND THEN 1000 FT AGL AFTER MIDNIGHT.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 31 MPH AT 1800 DECREASING TO 20 MPH
                    BY 2100 AND THEN VARIABLE TO DOWNSLOPE 6 MPH
                    AFTER MIDNIGHT.

$$
FORECASTER...JIM DANIELS
REQUESTED BY...JUSTIN MOORE
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20110515.QUAKI.01/GJT