FNUS75 KMSO 151409
FWSMSO

SPOT FORECAST FOR BLAZING 106
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MISSOULA MT
809 AM MDT SUN MAY 15 2011

FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1300 MDT ON MAY 15.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...THE SOUTHWESTERLY EXPOSURE OF THE BURN LOCATION SHOULD
HELP SHELTER THE FIRE FROM STRONGEST EASTERLY WINDS TODAY. HOWEVER...
GUSTS TO 25 MPH ARE STILL GOING TO BE POSSIBLE GIVEN THE SHEAR VELOCITY
OF EASTERLY WINDS EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA TODAY. SOME WEAK
SHOWERS ARE CURRENTLY SHOWING UP ON RADAR SOUTHWEST OF THE BURN.
EXPECT MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP AFTER 4PM
AND BECOMING WIDESPREAD OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL BE ERRATIC AND GUSTY NEAR
THE CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON/OVERNIGHT. ADDITIONALLY...A PRONOUNCED
WIND SHIFT FROM SOUTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST IS FORECAST TO OCCUR AROUND
MIDNIGHT WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST EXPECTED
THROUGHOUT THE DAY MONDAY.

.TODAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS IN THE
                    MORNING...THEN RAIN SHOWERS LIKELY AND SLIGHT
                    CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON.
CWR.................40 PERCENT.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....62-67.
MIN HUMIDITY........32-37 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........EAST WINDS 5-12 MPH BECOMING SOUTHEAST DURING THE
                    AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......5900 FT AGL.
MIXING WINDS........SOUTHEAST 20 MPH.

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EVENING.
                    RAIN SHOWERS THROUGH THE NIGHT.
CWR.................90 PERCENT.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....39-44.
MAX HUMIDITY........87-92 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHEAST WINDS 5-11 MPH BECOMING SOUTH 6 MPH
                    AFTER MIDNIGHT AND SOUTHWEST BY MORNING.
MIXING HEIGHT.......900 FT AGL.
MIXING WINDS........WEST 5 MPH.

.MONDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........RAIN SHOWERS THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
CWR.................60 PERCENT.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....50-55.
MIN HUMIDITY........54-59 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........WEST WINDS 7-13 MPH. GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH IN THE
                    AFTERNOON.
MIXING HEIGHT.......5100 FT AGL.
MIXING WINDS........SOUTHWEST 25 MPH.

$$

FORECASTER...DICKERSON
REQUESTED BY...LORIE COTTER
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20110515.BLAZI.01/MSO