FNUS73 KAPX 161414 FWSAPX SPOT FORECAST FOR SOUTH SELMA...USDA FOREST SERVICE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI 1014 AM EDT MON MAY 16 2011 FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1400 EDT ON MAY 16. IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. .DISCUSSION... PLENTY OF SUNSHINE FOR THE DAY WITH A DRY AIR MASS STILL IN PLACE. HUMIDITIES WILL GET DOWN TO RIGHT AROUND THE CRITICAL THRESHOLD THIS AFTERNOON...WHILE WE HAVE ANOTHER DAY OF GUSTY WINDS OUT OF THE NORTH TO NORTHEAST. THUS...ELEVATED FIRE DANGER AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON. GUSTY WINDS INTO THE EARLY EVENING...OTHERWISE WINDS DYING OFF A LITTLE BETTER THAN LAST NIGHT...WITH DECENT HUMIDITY RECOVERY. .TODAY... SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY (0-10 PERCENT). WIDESPREAD FROST EARLY IN THE MORNING. TEMPERATURE.........56 AT IGNITION...MAX 58. RH..................29 PERCENT AT IGNITION...MIN 24 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........WINDS NORTH AT 14 MPH AT IGNITION...OTHERWISE NORTHEAST WINDS 7 TO 14 MPH. GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHEAST 14 TO 22 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......500-1900 FT AGL INCREASING TO 5100 FT AGL AT IGNITION...OTHERWISE 5100-5700 FT AGL IN THE AFTERNOON. HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH AT IGNITION...MAX 5. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....EXCELLENT (1100) AT IGNITION. MAX...EXCELLENT (1200). TIME (EDT) 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM SKY (%).........9 9 9 9 WEATHER COV..... WEATHER TYPE.... TEMP............56 57 56 56 RH..............29 27 27 26 20 FT WIND DIR..N N NE NE 20 FT WIND SPD..13 13 13 12 20 FT WIND GUST.25 25 25 25 HAINES INDEX....4 4 4 4 SMOKE DISP......1100120012001200 .TONIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLEAR (10-20 PERCENT). AREAS OF FROST AFTER MIDNIGHT. TEMPERATURE.........MIN 31. RH..................MAX 82 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........NORTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 12 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS UP TO 12 MPH UNTIL EARLY MORNING BECOMING LIGHT...THEN BECOMING NORTHEAST AROUND 5 MPH EARLY IN THE MORNING. TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHEAST 18 TO 23 MPH DECREASING TO 7 TO 13 MPH IN THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. MIXING HEIGHT.......4500 FT AGL DECREASING TO 0-300 FT AGL IN THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. HAINES INDEX........MIN 4. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....MIN POOR(0). TIME (EDT) 6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM SKY (%).........9 9 12 12 12 12 12 12 16 16 16 16 WEATHER COV..... ARS ARS ARS ARS WEATHER TYPE.... FST FST FST FST TEMP............54 52 51 47 43 40 38 36 34 33 33 32 RH..............27 27 27 40 47 52 57 64 69 72 75 78 20 FT WIND DIR..N N N N NE NE NE NE NE NE NE NE 20 FT WIND SPD..11 10 9 7 6 6 5 5 5 5 4 5 20 FT WIND GUST.25 20 20 15 15 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 HAINES INDEX....4 4 4 4 5 5 5 4 4 4 5 5 SMOKE DISP......130012001000600 200 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 $$ FORECASTER...SCOTT DICKSON REQUESTED BY...JOE RASPOTNIK TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED .TAG 20110516.SOUTH.01/APX