FNUS75 KBYZ 161129
FWSBYZ

SPOT FORECAST FOR TIE CREEK...NORTHERN CHEYENNE AGENCY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
529 AM MDT MON MAY 16 2011

FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 0800 MDT ON MAY 16.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...
EAST WINDS THIS MORNING WILL TURN SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST BY EARLY
AFTERNOON. EXPECT THE WINDS TO SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST BY LATE
AFTERNOON. HUMIDITIES WILL BE IN THE 30S. ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL
DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON...BUT IT APPEARS THE MOST LIKELY
LOCATION FOR DEVELOPMENT WILL BE WEST OF THE BURN SITE. THE CHANCE
OF SHOWERS WILL INCREASE TUESDAY WITH WINDS TURNING BACK TO THE
EAST. THE EAST WINDS WILL ALLOW HUMIDITIES TO RISE. MIXING LEVELS
WILL BE RIGHT AROUND THE 4 THOUSAND FOOT LEVEL TODAY AND TUESDAY.
TWH

.TODAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
                    THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON.
CWR.................10 PERCENT.
LAL.................2...1 TO 8 STRIKES/15 MIN/CELL.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....64-69.
MIN HUMIDITY........33-38 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........
 SLOPE/VALLEY.......EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS 8 TO 16 MPH GUSTS TO
                    20 MPH THIS MORNING. WINDS TURNING SOUTH BY
                    EARLY AFTERNOON...THEN NORTHWEST BY LATE
                    AFTERNOON. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED
                    NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.
 RIDGETOP...........SOUTHWEST 10 TO 20 MPH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......4000 FT AGL.
MIXING WINDS........SOUTH 15 TO 30 MPH.

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY. SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS. AN
                    ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE IN THE
                    EVENING.
CWR.................18 PERCENT.
LAL.................2...1 TO 8 STRIKES/15 MIN/CELL.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....40-45.
MAX HUMIDITY........70-75 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........
 SLOPE/VALLEY.......NORTHWEST WINDS 8 TO 16 MPH IN THE EVENING
                    SHIFTING TO THE NORTHEAST 4 TO 12 MPH OVERNIGHT.
                    GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR
                    THUNDERSTORMS.
 RIDGETOP...........WEST 5 TO 10 MPH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......500 FT AGL.
MIXING WINDS........WEST 10 TO 20 MPH.

.TUESDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY. SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS. AN
                    ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM POSSIBLE IN THE
                    AFTERNOON.
CWR.................25 PERCENT.
LAL.................2...1 TO 8 STRIKES/15 MIN/CELL.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....55-60.
MIN HUMIDITY........40-45 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........
 SLOPE/VALLEY.......EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS 4 TO 12 MPH. GUSTY AND
                    ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.
 RIDGETOP...........SOUTHEAST 5 TO 15 MPH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......4000 FT AGL.
MIXING WINDS........EAST 5 TO 15 MPH.

$$
FORECASTER...HUMPHREY
REQUESTED BY...LEE OLD BEAR
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20110516.TIECR.01/BYZ