FNUS72 KMLB 161213
FWSMLB

SPOT FORECAST FOR YETI FIRE...US FISH ANDWILDLIFE SERVICE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
813 AM EDT MON MAY 16 2011

FORECAST IS BASED ON REQUEST TIME OF 0747 EDT ON MAY 16.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM
EDT THIS EVENING...

.DISCUSSION...
DRIER AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION BEHIND SUNDAY'S FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL BRING RH VALUES DROPPING BELOW 35 PERCENT FOR 2 TO 4 HOURS
OVER THE WILDFIRE THIS AFTERNOON. LIGHT WEST-NORTHWEST SURFACE AND
TRANSPORT WINDS THIS MORNING WILL INCREASE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AS
ANOTHER SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM APPROACHES. SUSTAINED WINDS
WILL REACH INTO THE 12 TO 18 MPH RANGE WITH GUSTS BETWEEN 25 TO 30
MPH IN THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL DECREASE
WITHIN A FEW HOURS OF SUNSET TONIGHT THOUGH TRANSPORT WINDS WILL
REMAIN ELEVATED.

A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS
THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES DUE TO THE VERY COLD AIR ALOFT...THOUGH
IF ANY DO DEVELOP...THE COVERAGE WILL BE VERY LOW.

.REST OF TODAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
                    THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 1800 EDT.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 82.
MIN HUMIDITY........33 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT WINDS BECOMING WEST 16 TO 17 MPH.
CHANCE OF PCPN......20 PERCENT.
LAL.................1 UNTIL 1700...THEN 2.
MIXING HEIGHT.......1300 FT AGL INCREASING TO 5400 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 6 TO 14 MPH INCREASING TO 22 TO 25 MPH
                    EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON.
DISPERSION INDEX....80.
LVORI...............0.

TIME (EDT)      8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM 6PM 7PM
SKY (%).........MCR MCR MCR MCR  PC  PC  PC  PC  PC  PC  PC  PC
WEATHER COV.....                                        SCH SCH
WEATHER TYPE....                                        TSM TSM
TEMP............62  66  70  74  76  77  79  81  82  82  78  74
RH..............81  70  59  51  45  42  36  34  33  33  39  44
20 FT WIND DIR..W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W
20 FT WIND SPD..3   6   7   9   12  13  15  15  16  18  18  16
20 FT WIND GUST.5   10  10  15  15  20  20  25  25  30  30  25

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
                    THUNDERSTORMS BEFORE 2200 EDT.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 57.
MAX HUMIDITY........81 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........WEST WINDS 12 TO 20 MPH DECREASING TO 6 TO 10
                    MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT.
CHANCE OF PCP......10 PERCENT.
LAL.................2 UNTIL 2000...THEN 1.
MIXING HEIGHT.......4700-5400 FT AGL DECREASING TO 200-400 FT AGL
                    LATE IN THE EVENING.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 17 TO 25 MPH DECREASING TO 10 TO 12 MPH
                    AFTER MIDNIGHT.
DISPERSION INDEX....5.
LVORI...............4.

.TUESDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 82.
MIN HUMIDITY........36 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........WEST WINDS 5 TO 9 MPH INCREASING TO 15 TO 17
                    MPH EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON.
CHANCE OF PCP......10 PERCENT.
LAL.................1.
MIXING HEIGHT.......200-1000 FT AGL INCREASING TO 3500-4600 FT AGL
                    LATE IN THE MORNING.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 7 TO 14 MPH INCREASING TO WEST 20 TO
                    22 MPH EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON.
DISPERSION INDEX....58.
LVORI...............0.

$$
FORECASTER...MOSES
REQUESTED BY...CHRIS WRIGHT
TYPE OF REQUEST...WILDFIRE
.TAG 20110516.YETIF.01/MLB