FNUS75 KRIW 161408 FWSRIW SPOT FORECAST FOR MOSS RANCH LITTLE MTN RX...IA CDC NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY 808 AM MDT MON MAY 16 2011 FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1000 MDT ON MAY 16. IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. .DISCUSSION... A DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE OVER THE BURN SITE LATER THIS MORNING...WITH SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDER POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. GUSTY WIND TO 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON IN ADDITION TO LIGHTNING. THUNDERSTORMS WILL WEAKEN WITH THE LOSS OF DAYLIGHT THIS EVENING...THOUGH SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT AS SNOW LEVELS DECREASE TO AROUND 6500 FT. ANY SNOW ACCUMULATION SHOULD BE MINIMAL. SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL CONVERT BACK TO RAINFALL BY TUESDAY MORNING...WITH SHOWERS CONTINUING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. WIND WILL INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AS THIS SYSTEM APPROACHES...BUT WILL WEAKEN OVERNIGHT AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES. ...THUNDERSTORMS IMPLY STRONG GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS... ...HAINES INDEX IS HIGH LEVEL HAINES BOTH DAY AND NIGHT... FORECASTER...BRANHAM .TODAY... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (70-80 PERCENT). SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 1300. MAX TEMPERATURE.....54-57 BELOW 6200 FT...52-55 ABOVE 6200 FT. MIN HUMIDITY........30-34 PERCENT BELOW 6200 FT....33-37 ABOVE 6200 FT. 20 FOOT WINDS.......SOUTH 6-10 MPH INCREASING TO 10-15 MPH BY 1100. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON. RIDGE TOP WINDS.....SOUTH 15 TO 20 MPH DECREASING TO 10 TO 15 MPH BY 1500. LAL.................1 UNTIL 1300...THEN 2. CHC OF WETTING RAIN.LESS THAN 5 PERCENT. HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. MIXING HEIGHT.......INCREASING TO 4700-5700 FT AGL BY 1400. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 15 TO 22 MPH. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR TO GOOD (36200-69400 KNOT-FT). .TONIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (85-95 PERCENT). ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH 2200. SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AFTER 0100. MIN TEMPERATURE.....35-38 BELOW 6200 FT....32-36 ABOVE 6200 FT. MAX HUMIDITY........79-82 PERCENT BELOW 6200 FT...82-86 PERCENT ABOVE 6200 FT. 20 FOOT WINDS.......BECOMING DOWNSLOPE/DOWNVALLEY 4-7 MPH AFTER 1800. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS. RIDGE TOP WINDS.....NORTHWEST 8 TO 12 MPH SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHEAST AFTER 2200. LAL.................2 UNTIL 2200...THEN 1. CHC OF WETTING RAIN.14 PERCENT. HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. MIXING HEIGHT.......DECREASING TO 1200-2200 FT AGL BY 0200. TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST 8 TO 12 MPH SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHEAST 10 TO 15 MPH AFTER 2200. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR TO FAIR (19400-45500 KNOT-FT). .TUESDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (85-95 PERCENT). SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS THROUGH THE DAY. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 1200. MAX TEMPERATURE.....46-49 BELOW 6200 FT...42-46 ABOVE 6200 FT. MIN HUMIDITY........47-50 PERCENT BELOW 6200 FT...50-55 PERCENT ABOVE 6200 FT. 20 FOOT WINDS.......UPSLOPE/UPVALLEY 5-9 MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON. RIDGE TOP WINDS.....SOUTHEAST 7 TO 10 MPH SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHWEST BY 1100. LAL.................1 UNTIL 1200...THEN 2. CHC OF WETTING RAIN.24 PERCENT. HAINES INDEX........2 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. MIXING HEIGHT.......1800-2800 FT AGL. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHEAST 10 TO 15 MPH SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHWEST AFTER 2200. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (17600-32800 KNOT-FT). .FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5... .TUESDAY NIGHT...CLOUDY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EVENING...THEN CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND SNOW SHOWERS AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOWS IN THE MID 30S. WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 MPH. .WEDNESDAY...SHOWERS...SNOW SHOWERS LIKELY AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE MID 30S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S. WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 MPH. .THURSDAY...SHOWERS AND SNOW SHOWERS LIKELY. LOWS IN THE MID 30S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 40S. WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 MPH. .FRIDAY...SHOWERS LIKELY. LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S. HIGHS AROUND 50. WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 MPH. $$ FORECASTER...BRANHAM REQUESTED BY...CDC REASON FOR REQUEST...PRESCRIBED .TAG 20110516.MOSSR.01/RIW