FNAK79 PAFG 171534
FWSAFG

SPOT FORECAST FOR JARVIS CREEK RX
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
734 AM AKDT TUE MAY 17 2011

FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1200 AKDT ON MAY 17.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM AKDT WEDNESDAY...

.DISCUSSION...

A THERMAL TROUGH WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY JUST NORTH OF THE
NORTH SLOPES OF THE ALASKA RANGE THE NEXT FEW DAYS. EXPECT
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES NEAR 15 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN
WEDNESDAY. SOUTH WINDS WILL INCREASE DURING THE MID AFTERNOON
THROUGH MID EVENING HOURS EACH DAY IN RESPONSE TO THE THERMAL
TROUGH.

.TODAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (15-35 PERCENT).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 65.
MIN HUMIDITY........17 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTH WINDS 3 TO 6 MPH INCREASING TO 8 TO 16 MPH
                    WITH FREQUENT GUSTS TO 25 MPH.
CWR.................0 PERCENT.
MIXING HEIGHT.......800-1200 FT AGL INCREASING TO 8000 FT AGL EARLY
                    IN THE AFTERNOON.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHEAST AROUND 15 MPH.

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (25-50 PERCENT).
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 40.
MAX HUMIDITY........50 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTH 8 TO 16 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 25 MPH POSSIBLE
                    UNTIL 2100...THEN DIMINISHING TO 3 TO 6 MPH.
CWR.................0 PERCENT.
MIXING HEIGHT.......8000 FT AGL DECREASING TO 800-1200 FT AGL
                    AFTER MIDNIGHT.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH AROUND 15 MPH.

.WEDNESDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (25-50 PERCENT).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 65.
MIN HUMIDITY........20 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTH WINDS 3 TO 6 MPH INCREASING TO 8 TO 16 MPH
                    BY EARLY AFTERNOON WITH FREQUENT GUSTS TO 25 MPH.
CWR.................0 PERCENT.
MIXING HEIGHT.......INCREASING TO 7000 FT AGL BY NOON.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH AROUND 15 MPH.

$$
FORECASTER...BOGEL/BERG
REQUESTED BY...MATT ROBINETT
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20110517.JARVI.02/AFG