FNUS75 KRIW 170050
FWSRIW

SPOT FORECAST FOR PAGODA CABIN GROUP 2011...USFS SHF
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
650 PM MDT MON MAY 16 2011

FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1100 MDT ON MAY 17.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...ISOLATED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORMS WILL DECREASE
WITH SUNSET THIS EVENING. A SURFACE TROUGH WILL EXTEND ACROSS
NORTHWEST WYOMING INTO CENTRAL WYOMING TUESDAY. AN UPPER
DISTURBANCE MOVING NORTHEAST IN A SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BRING
ANOTHER ROUND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ALONG AND EAST OF THIS SURFACE TROUGH...MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY
REMAINING EAST OF THE BURN AREA. A UP CANYON EASTERLY FLOW WILL
PREVAIL FROM IGNITION TIME THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH TEMPERATURES
TRENDING COOLER AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY HIGHER THAN MONDAY.

...THUNDERSTORMS IMPLY STRONG GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS...
...HAINES INDEX IS HIGH LEVEL HAINES BOTH DAY AND NIGHT...

FORECASTER...MEUNIER

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (95-100 PERCENT) THIS EVENING WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS.
                    MOSTLY CLOUDY (60-70 PERCENT) AFTER MIDNIGHT.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....32-35.
MAX HUMIDITY........78-81 PERCENT.
20 FOOT WINDS.......WEST 12 TO 18 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 25 MPH IN THE EVENING...
                    BECOMING WEST SOUTHWEST 5 TO 10 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT.
RIDGE TOP WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 15 TO 20 MPH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......4600-5600 FT AGL DECREASING TO 2200-3200 FT AGL
                    AFTER MIDNIGHT.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST WEST 18 TO 21 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....FAIR TO GOOD (44900-91100 KNOT-FT).

.TUESDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY IN THE MORNING (40-50 PERCENT).
                    BECOMING MOSTLY CLOUDY IN THE AFTERNOON (80-90 PERCENT)
                    WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....49-52.
MIN HUMIDITY........37-40 PERCENT.
20 FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST AROUND 5 MPH THROUGH 0900L...BECOMING EAST
                    OR UP CANYON AROUND 10 MPH AT 1100L.
RIDGE TOP WINDS.....WEST 5 TO 10 MPH SHIFTING TO THE EAST IN THE
                    AFTERNOON.
MIXING HEIGHT.......3700-4700 FT AGL AT 1100L THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 10 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....FAIR (37000-47000 KNOT-FT).

.FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5...
.TUESDAY NIGHT...CLOUDY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EVENING...THEN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND SNOW
SHOWERS AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOWS IN THE LOWER 30S. WINDS GENERALLY
LESS THAN 10 MPH.
.WEDNESDAY...NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN
THE MID 30S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 50S. WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN
10 MPH.
.THURSDAY...SHOWERS AND SNOW SHOWERS LIKELY. LOWS IN THE MID 30S.
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S. WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 MPH.
.FRIDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND SNOW SHOWERS.
LOWS IN THE LOWER 30S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 50S. WINDS GENERALLY
LESS THAN 10 MPH.
.SATURDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS WITH POSSIBLE SNOW
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE MID 30S. HIGHS IN THE MID
50S. WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 MPH.

$$

FORECASTER...MEUNIER
REQUESTED BY...BLAKE CREAGAN
REASON FOR REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20110517.PAGOD.01/RIW