FNUS72 KJAX 182130
FWSJAX

SPOT FORECAST FOR HUNT CLUB FIRE...MARION COUNTY FIRE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
530 PM EDT WED MAY 18 2011

FORECAST IS BASED ON REQUEST TIME OF 1718 EDT ON MAY 18.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING...
...FIRE WEATHER WATCH IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH
THURSDAY EVENING...

.DISCUSSION...A VERY DRY AIRMASS THIS AFTERNOON WITH HIGH DISPERSIONS
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING...WITH A RED FLAG WARNING IN
PLACE. RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL BOTTOM OUT IN THE UPPER 20S WITH
DISPERSIONS TOPPING OUT IN THE LOWER 80S NEAR THE WILDFIRE. ERC VALUES
ARE NEAR 35. WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS ARE NEAR 10 MPH WITH GUSTS TO
NEAR 15-18 MPH REST OF THE AFTERNOON. REMNANTS OF EAST COAST SEA BREEZE
MAY MOVE NEAR THE WILDFIRE AROUND 10 TO 11 PM BUT SHOULD BE WEAKENED
BY LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.

MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE FROM THE ATLANTIC THURSDAY
AFTERNOON...BUT RH VALUES WILL AGAIN BOTTOM OUT IN THE MID TO
UPPER 20 PERCENT RANGE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE INTERIOR AND ERC
VALUES WILL AVERAGE AROUND 35. AS A RESULT...A FIRE WEATHER WATCH
HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR AREAS GENERALLY NEAR AND WEST OF THE I-75
CORRIDOR. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT.

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLEAR (5-15 PERCENT).
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 51.
MAX HUMIDITY........100 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........NORTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 8 MPH IN THE EVENING
                    BECOMING LIGHT.
LAL.................1.
MIXING HEIGHT.......6600 FT AGL DECREASING TO 200-700 FT AGL.
MIXING WINDS........WEST 8 TO 12 MPH SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH AROUND 6
                    MPH LATE IN THE EVENING...THEN SHIFTING TO THE
                    SOUTHEAST 5 TO 6 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT.
DISPERSION INDEX....2.
CHANCE OF PCPN......0 PERCENT.
LVORI...............8.

TIME (EDT)      6 PM   8 PM   10 PM  MIDNGT 2 AM   4 AM
SKY (%).........8      8      8      8      8      8
WEATHER COV.....
WEATHER TYPE....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
TEMP............78     70     62     59     56     53
RH..............32     47     64     77     91     100
20 FT WIND......WNW 7  W 8    NW 6   VRB 3  VRB 2  N 1
20 FT WIND GUST.14     10     10     5      5      5
MIX HGT (FT)....6600   2700   2700   1500   200    200
TRANSPORT WIND..W 12   W 8    W 8    S 6    E 6    E 6
LVORI...........8      8      8      8      8      8
DISPERSION INDX.83     5      5      3      1      1
CHC OF PCPN (%).0      0      0      0      0      0
LAL.............1      1      1      1      1      1

.THURSDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (10-20 PERCENT).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 89.
MIN HUMIDITY........28 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT WINDS BECOMING SOUTHEAST 5 TO 6 MPH IN
                    THE AFTERNOON.
LAL.................1.
MIXING HEIGHT.......700-1200 FT AGL INCREASING TO 4700-5900 FT AGL.
MIXING WINDS........SOUTHWEST 5 TO 6 MPH.
DISPERSION INDEX....31.
CHANCE OF PCPN......0 PERCENT.

TIME (EDT)      6 AM   8 AM   10 AM  NOON   2 PM   4 PM
SKY (%).........9      12     12     12     22     24
WEATHER COV.....
WEATHER TYPE....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
TEMP............51     56     73     83     88     88
RH..............100    100    53     35     29     30
20 FT WIND......NE 1   NE 1   E 2    SE 3   S 5    SE 6
20 FT WIND GUST.              5      5
MIX HGT (FT)....700    1200   1600   3500   5900   5900
TRANSPORT WIND..SE 5   S 5    S 5    S 5    SW 5   SW 5
DISPERSION INDX.2      9      9      25     38     38
CHC OF PCPN (%).0      0      0      0      0      0
LAL.............1      1      1      1      1      1

$$
FORECASTER...SHASHY
REQUESTED BY...WALKER
TYPE OF REQUEST...WILDFIRE
.TAG 20110518.HUNTC.01/JAX