FNUS72 KMLB 211152
FWSMLB

SPOT FORECAST FOR JAY ANGELS...USFWS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
752 AM EDT SAT MAY 21 2011

FORECAST IS BASED ON REQUEST TIME OF 0702 EDT ON MAY 21.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING REMAINS NEAR THE
WILDFIRE EARLY THIS MORNING. AS SUCH...CALM TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS WILL BE OBSERVED. EVENTUALLY AS THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE
DEVELOPS AND MOVES INLAND BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...WINDS NEAR THE
WILDFIRE WILL EVENTUALLY TRANSITION TO AN EASTERLY COMPONENT. AFTER
INITIAL PATCHY MORNING FOG SKIES WILL BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR BEFORE
HEATING OF THE DAY ALLOWS CUMULUS CLOUDS TO DEVELOP WITH SKIES
BECOMING PARTLY SUNNY.

A LESS THAN 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON BUT FOR INLAND LOCATIONS WEST OF THE WILDFIRE..AND MAINLY
ALONG THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE WITH INTERACTIONS WITH LOCAL LAKE BREEZES
ANOTHER POSSIBLE SOURCE OF CONVERGENCE.

NOTE...HIGH PRESSURE AND LIGHT WINDS OVER THE REGION WILL MAKE WIND
DIRECTION FORECASTS A BIT TRICKY SO A LOWER CONFIDENCE HERE. LET US
KNOW IF THE FORECAST BECOMES UNREPRESENTATIVE.

.TODAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY. PATCHY FOG EARLY IN THE MORNING.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 84.
MIN HUMIDITY........54 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT WINDS BECOMING SOUTH AROUND 5 MPH LATE IN
                    THE MORNING...THEN SHIFTING TO THE EAST 8 TO 13
                    MPH EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON BEHIND THE EAST COAST
                    SEA BREEZE.
CHANCE OF PCPN......10 PERCENT.
LAL.................1.
MIXING HEIGHT.......600-1900 FT AGL INCREASING TO 3100-4300 FT AGL
                    LATE IN THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....EAST 5 TO 8 MPH.
DISPERSION INDEX....28.

TIME (EDT)      7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM 6PM
SKY (%).........MCR MCR MCR PC  PC  PC  PC  PC  PC  PC  PC  PC
WEATHER COV.....PTY PTY PTY
WEATHER TYPE....FOG FOG FOG
TEMP............74  78  82  82  84  84  84  84  83  82  81  81
RH..............95  93  84  71  71  66  64  66  68  70  73  76
20 FT WIND DIR..S   S   S   SE  SE  E   E   E   E   E   E   E
20 FT WIND SPD..3   5   5   6   8   9   9   10  12  12  13  13
20 FT WIND GUST.                10  10  10  12  13  15  15  15

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 72.
MAX HUMIDITY........93 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 13 MPH THIS EVENING DECREASING
                    TO 2 TO 5 MPH OVERNIGHT.
CHANCE OF PCPN......0 PERCENT.
LAL.................1.
MIXING HEIGHT.......2500-4100 FT AGL DECREASING TO 300-900 FT AGL
                    LATE IN THE EVENING.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHEAST 7 TO 10 MPH.
DISPERSION INDEX....4.
LVORI...............7.

.SUNDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 84.
MIN HUMIDITY........54 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT WINDS BECOMING EAST 6 TO 9 MPH LATE IN
                    THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON.
CHANCE OF PCPN......10 PERCENT.
LAL.................1.
MIXING HEIGHT.......300-900 FT AGL INCREASING TO 4000 FT AGL EARLY
                    IN THE AFTERNOON.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....EAST 5 TO 10 MPH.
DISPERSION INDEX....26.

$$
FORECASTER...SEDLOCK
REQUESTED BY...CYNTHIA BRANHAM
TYPE OF REQUEST...WILDFIRE
.TAG 20110521.JAYAN.01/MLB