FNUS75 KPUB 230036
FWSPUB

SPOT FORECAST FOR SULLIVAN...FORT CARSON FIRE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
636 PM MDT SUN MAY 22 2011

IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...

WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE TRACKING FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE
REGION THIS EVENING IS SPAWNING HIGH BASED THUNDERSTORMS.  WITH THE
SURFACE AIRMASS QUITE DRY...THE PRIMARY THREATS FROM THESE STORMS
ARE STRONG GUSTY DOWNBURST WINDS AND LIGHTNING.  THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD
CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS BEFORE DISSIPATION AND PARTIAL
CLEARING OCCURS.  GUSTY THUNDERSTORM WINDS TO AROUND 45 MPH WILL BE
POSSIBLE UNTIL AROUND 2100...WITH PEAK GUSTS DECREASING TO AROUND 30
MPH 2100-2400.  MUCH LIGHTER WIND SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED AFTER MIDNIGHT.

FOR MONDAY...THE MORNING SHOULD START OUT FAIRLY QUIET...BUT AN
APPROACHING DISTURBANCE WILL BEGIN TO RAMP UP CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
BY LATE MORNING.  ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY START TO APPEAR AROUND
LATE MORNING...WITH MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
DEVELOPING DURING THE AFTERNOON.  THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE
WILL STILL BE PRETTY DRY...SO LIGHTNING AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS WILL
AGAIN BE PRIMARY CONCERNS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.  LATER IN THE
DAY AND INTO THE EVENING...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL INCREASE RESULTING
IN THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HEADING INTO
THE EVENING.

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL
                    2100...THEN PARTLY CLOUDY (50 PERCENT).
MIN TEMPERATURE.....45-50F.
MAX HUMIDITY........55-60 PERCENT.
20 FOOT WIND........WESTERLY WINDS 15-20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND
                    30 MPH UNTIL 2400...THEN NORTHWEST WINDS 5-10 MPH.
                    ERRATIC WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 45 MPH POSSIBLE NEAR
                    THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL 2100.
MIXING HEIGHT.......5000 FT AGL UNTIL 1900...THEN 500 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WIND......NORTHWEST AROUND 5 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....GOOD UNTIL 1900...THEN DECREASING TO POOR.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
LAL.................3 UNTIL 2400...THEN 1.

.MONDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (55 PERCENT). ISOLATED SHOWERS
                    POSSIBLE UNTIL 1200...THEN SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....65-70F.
MIN HUMIDITY........25-30 PERCENT.
20 FOOT WIND........NORTHWEST 5 MPH UNTIL 0900...THEN BECOMING
                    SOUTHEAST 8-15 MPH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......2000 FT AGL UNTIL 1000...THEN 7500 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WIND......SOUTHEAST AROUND 5 MPH UNTIL 0800...THEN EAST
                    AROUND 5 MPH UNTIL 1400...THEN SOUTH AROUND 5
                    MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR UNTIL 1500...THEN FAIR UNTIL 1600...THEN
                    BECOMING POOR.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
LAL.................1 UNTIL 1200...THEN 4.

$$
FORECASTER...WALROD
REQUESTED BY...PETER WOLF
TYPE OF REQUEST...WILDFIRE
.TAG 20110522.SULLI.01/PUB