FNUS72 KMHX 232004 FWSMHX SPOT FORECAST FOR PAINS BAY FIRE...NCDFR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC 404 PM EDT MON MAY 23 2011 FORECAST IS BASED ON REQUEST TIME OF 1559 EDT ON MAY 23. IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE, CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. .DISCUSSION... AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS ANOTHER WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CROSSES FROM WEST TO EAST. OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE OFFSHORE THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE LINGERS INLAND. .TONIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY...THEN BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 71. MAX HUMIDITY........93 PERCENT. 20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS 12 TO 17 MPH. GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH IN THE EVENING. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS. HAINES INDEX........3 TO 5 OR OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH TO OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. MIXING HEIGHT.......1100-3000 FT AGL...DECREASING TO 300-800 FT AGL AFTER MIDNIGHT. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 20 TO 29 MPH...BECOMING SOUTHWEST AROUND 18 MPH LATE. LVORI...............3. TIME (EDT) 6 PM 9 PM MIDNGT 3 AM SKY (%).............54 58 57 47 WEATHER COV.........S CHC S CHC S CHC S CHC WEATHER TYPE........TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TEMP................80 76 73 71 RH..................65 76 87 93 20 FT WIND (MPH)....S 15G30 S 12G25 SW 11G20 SW 11G20 LVORI...............1 3 4 5 HAINES INDEX........5 4 4 3 .TUESDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE MORNING. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON. MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 88. MIN HUMIDITY........55 PERCENT. 20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS 11 TO 13 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE MORNING. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON. HAINES INDEX........3 TO 4 OR OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH TO OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. MIXING HEIGHT.......600-1800 FT AGL...INCREASING TO 2600-4500 FT AGL IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 16 TO 22 MPH. LVORI...............3. TIME (EDT) 6 AM 9 AM NOON 3 PM SKY (%).............44 42 29 28 WEATHER COV.........S CHC S CHC WEATHER TYPE........TSTORM NONE NONE TSTORM TEMP................72 82 88 88 RH..................90 67 55 55 20 FT WIND (MPH)....SW 10G20 SW 11G20 SW 12G25 SW 12G25 LVORI...............4 3 1 1 HAINES INDEX........4 3 3 4 .TUESDAY NIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY...THEN BECOMING MOSTLY CLOUDY...THEN BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY. MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 72. MAX HUMIDITY........97 PERCENT. 20-FOOT WINDS.......WEST WINDS 8 TO 13 MPH. GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH IN THE EVENING. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS. HAINES INDEX........4 TO 5 OR OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH TO OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. MIXING HEIGHT.......1500-3000 FT AGL...DECREASING TO 300 FT AGL EARLY IN THE EVENING. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 16 TO 18 MPH. LVORI...............4. TIME (EDT) 6 PM 9 PM MIDNGT 3 AM SKY (%).............41 43 50 41 WEATHER COV.........S CHC S CHC S CHC WEATHER TYPE........TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM NONE TEMP................84 78 75 72 RH..................65 79 87 97 20 FT WIND (MPH)....SW 12G25 SW 12G20 SW 10G15 SW 8G15 LVORI...............3 3 4 5 HAINES INDEX........4 4 5 4 .WEDNESDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY. MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 83. MIN HUMIDITY........61 PERCENT. 20-FOOT WINDS.......EAST WINDS 5 TO 8 MPH. HAINES INDEX........3 TO 4 OR OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH TO OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. MIXING HEIGHT.......600-2200 FT AGL...INCREASING TO 2800-4400 FT AGL IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST 7 TO 15 MPH...BECOMING NORTHEAST 8 TO 9 MPH LATE. LVORI...............3. TIME (EDT) 6 AM 9 AM NOON 3 PM SKY (%).............30 12 15 19 WEATHER COV......... WEATHER TYPE........NONE NONE NONE NONE TEMP................72 80 83 83 RH..................90 67 61 61 20 FT WIND (MPH)....W 5 NW 5 NE 5 E 6G10 LVORI...............5 3 1 2 HAINES INDEX........4 4 4 4 $$ FORECASTER...AUSTIN REQUESTED BY...SCOTT LUDLUM TYPE OF REQUEST...WILDFIRE .TAG 20110523.PAINS.01/MHX