FNUS73 KSGF 231854 FWSSGF SPOT FORECAST FOR JOPLIN DSS...NWS/SEMA/EOC NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO 154 PM CDT MON MAY 23 2011 FORECAST IS BASED ON INCIDENT TIME OF 1330 CDT ON MAY 23. IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. .DISCUSSION... THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO TRACK EAST FROM NORTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA INTO SOUTHWEST MISSOURI THIS AFTERNOON. THIS ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF THE JOPLIN AREA...HOWEVER THE NORTHERN EDGES MAY CLIP JOPLIN WITH RAIN AND ISOLATED TO OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING POSSIBLE. ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS ARE BEGINNING TO DEVELOP ACROSS NORTHERN OKLAHOMA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THIS ACTIVITY WILL PUSH EAST TOWARDS THE AREA. CLOUD COVER FROM THE ONGOING CONVECTION IS LIMITING INSTABILITY. SO...THE SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL BE LIMITED IN THE JOPLIN AREA DUE TO THE LACK OF INSTABILITY...HOWEVER THESE STORMS MAY PUSH INTO THE AREA. BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL...FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND SMALL HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN RISK WITH THESE ADDITIONAL STORMS. ERRATIC AND GUSTY WINDS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS. THE TORNADO RISK IS LIMITED DUE TO THE LACK OF INSTABILITY. .TODAY... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE MORNING...THEN PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE MORNING. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON. MAX TEMPERATURE.....71 AT INCIDENT...MAX 78. 20-FOOT WINDS.......WINDS SOUTH AT 11 MPH AT INCIDENT...OTHERWISE SOUTH WINDS 8 TO 14 MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS. WIND SHIFT..........NONE CHANCE OF PRECIP....70 PERCENT. TIME (CDT) 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM SKY (%).........CDY CDY MC MC MC WEATHER COV.....CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC WEATHER TYPE....TSM TSM TSM TSM TSM TEMP............68 71 74 77 77 20 FT WIND DIR..SW S S S S 20 FT WIND SPD..9 8 8 7 7 20 FT WIND GUST.25 20 15 10 10 CHC OF PCPN (%).50 50 50 50 50 .TONIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE EVENING...THEN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY. MIN TEMPERATURE.....MIN 67. 20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTH WINDS 6 TO 14 MPH. GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH EARLY IN THE EVENING. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS. WIND SHIFT..........NONE CHANCE OF PRECIP....70 PERCENT. TIME (CDT) 6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM SKY (%).........MC MC MC MC MC MC MC MC MC MC MC MC WEATHER COV.....CHC LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY WEATHER TYPE....TSM TSM TSM TSM TSM TSM TSM TSM TSM TSM TSM TSM TEMP............77 76 75 74 73 72 71 71 68 68 68 67 20 FT WIND DIR..S S S S S S S S S SE SE SE 20 FT WIND SPD..7 7 6 6 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 20 FT WIND GUST.15 25 15 15 10 10 10 10 10 CHC OF PCPN (%).50 70 70 70 70 70 70 70 70 70 70 70 .TUESDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY EARLY IN THE MORNING...THEN CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. MAX TEMPERATURE.....MAX 84. 20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTH WINDS 6 TO 14 MPH. GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH LATE IN THE MORNING. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS. WIND SHIFT..........NONE CHANCE OF PRECIP....40 PERCENT. TIME (CDT) 6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM SKY (%).........MC MC MC MC MC MC MC MC MC MC MC MC WEATHER COV.....LKY CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC WEATHER TYPE....TSM TSM TSM TSM TSM TSM TSM TSM TSM TSM TSM TSM TEMP............67 69 71 74 77 79 80 81 82 83 83 83 20 FT WIND DIR..SE SE SE S S S S S S S S S 20 FT WIND SPD..5 6 6 7 8 8 9 9 9 10 10 10 20 FT WIND GUST. 10 15 15 20 20 20 25 25 25 25 CHC OF PCPN (%).70 40 40 40 40 40 40 40 40 40 40 40 $$ FORECASTER...WISE REQUESTED BY...JSS TYPE OF REQUEST...DSS SUPPORT .TAG 20110523.JOPLI.01/SGF