FNAK79 PAFG 251353
FWSAFG

SPOT FORECAST FOR MOOSE CREEK...ALASKA FIRE SERVICE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
553 AM AKDT WED MAY 25 2011

FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1000 AKDT ON MAY 25.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...
THIS MORNING THE AXIS OF A SURFACE THERMAL TROUGH INTERIOR LIES
FROM GALENA TO FAIRBANKS TO 50 MILES SOUTH OF EAGLE. LITTLE CHANGE
IN THE POSITION OF THE THERMAL TROUGH IS EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY.
WITH THE THERMAL TROUGH AXIS BEING RIGHT OVER THE FAIRBANKS
AREA...THE WIND DIRECTION IS LIKELY TO BE VARIABLE. A MODERATELY
UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY.
A WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE TO THE EAST OF FAIRBANKS WILL MOVE
NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE INTERIOR TODAY. THIS DISTURBANCE ALONG
WITH THE INSTABILITY WILL TRIGGER ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED AGAIN THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS ANOTHER WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE
MOVES NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE AREA. SLIGHTLY WARMER AND DRIER CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT BUILDS
OVER THE AREA.


.TODAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (70-80 PERCENT). ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS
                    AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 74.
MIN HUMIDITY........27 TO 30 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........VARIABLE MAINLY EAST 2-5 MPH. OCCASIONAL
                    GUSTS 6-10 MPH FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH
                    THE AFTERNOON.
CWR.................10 PERCENT.
LAL.................2.
MIXING HEIGHT.......2000 FT AGL RISING TO 7500 FT AGL IN THE AFTERNOON.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHEAST AROUND 10 MPH.

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (70-80 PERCENT). ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS
                    AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EVENING.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 50.
MAX HUMIDITY........80 TO 90 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........VARIABLE MAINLY EAST 2-4 MPH.
CWR.................10 PERCENT.
LAL.................2.
MIXING HEIGHT.......7500 FT AGL IN THE EARLY EVENING LOWERING TO
                    2000 FT AGL TOWARDS MORNING.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHEAST AROUND 10 MPH.

.THURSDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (70-80 PERCENT). ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS
                    AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 77.
MIN HUMIDITY........24 TO 27 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........EAST TO SOUTHEAST 2-4 MPH IN THE MORNING INCREASING
                    TO 6-10 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.
CWR.................5 PERCENT.
LAL.................2.
MIXING HEIGHT.......2000 FT AGL EARLY MORNING RISING TO 8000 FT AGL
                    IN THE AFTERNOON.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....EAST 5 TO 10 MPH.

$$
FORECASTER...FISCHER
REQUESTED BY...CHRISTOPHER FRIAR
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20110524.MOOSE.03/AFG