FNUS75 KBOU 251511 FWSBOU SPOT FORECAST FOR MUD SPRINGS RX...CSFS NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO 908 AM MDT WED MAY 25 2011 IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. .DISCUSSION...LARGE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL FINALLY BE MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. CLOUDS WILL SLOWLY BE ON THE DECREASE AS A RESULT. A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE AFTER 1200 OVER THE NEARBY MOUNTAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARM ENOUGH THIS AFTERNOON FOR AN INCREASE IN MIXING HEIGHTS. THERE WILL BE ENOUGH TRANSPORT WINDS TO PRODUCE DECENT SMOKE DISPERSION. THE AIRMASS WILL QUICKLY STABILIZE THIS EVENING. ON THURSDAY...DRIER AIR WILL BE OVER THE AREA. HOWEVER... INSTABILITY COMBINING WILL LINGERING MOISTURE WILL ALLOW FOR BUILDUPS BY AFTERNOON...WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS. BUT THE MAIN WEATHER CONCERN FOR THURSDAY WILL BE INCREASING WIND BEHIND THE DISTURBANCE. COULD SEE SOME GUSTS TO 45 MPH DURING THE AFTERNOON. NOTE: DUE TO THE AMOUNT OF CLOUDS STILL EXPECTED TODAY...THE CLOUD COVER PERCENT IN THE TABLE BELOW LOOKS A BIT OPTIMISTIC. OTHERWISE...THE REST OF THE DATA IN THE TABLE SEEMS REASONABLE. ...THUNDERSTORMS IMPLY STRONG...GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS... .REST OF TODAY... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY UNTIL 1200...THEN PARTY CLOUDY(40-50%). SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER NEARBY MOUNTAINS. MAX TEMPERATURE.....52-56. MIN HUMIDITY........27-32%. 20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHWEST WINDS 13-19 MPH. SOME GUSTS TO 30 MPH. TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST 12-20 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......3200-4200 FT AGL...INCREASING TO 8400-9400 FT AGL AFTER 1200. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....GOOD. HAINES INDEX........3 VERY LOW. .TONIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLEAR. MIN TEMPERATURE.....33-37. MAX HUMIDITY........73-77%. 20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS 6-7 MPH. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 4-12 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......7400 FT AGL UNTIL 1900...DECREASING TO BELOW 1000 FT AGL AFTER 2300. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....GOOD UNTIL 1900. POOR AFTER 2100. HAINES INDEX........2 VERY LOW. .THURSDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY(35-45%) UNTIL 1200...THEN MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 1200. MAX TEMPERATURE.....58-61. MIN HUMIDITY........22-27%. 20-FOOT WINDS.......WINDY. SOUTHWEST WINDS 7-11 MPH BECOMING WEST 22-30 MPH WITH SOME GUSTS TO 45 MPH AFTER 1200. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 20-28 MPH UNTIL 1200...THEN WEST 36-44 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......BELOW 1000 FT AGL UNTIL 0800. 7200-8200 FT AGL AFTER 1100. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR UNTIL 1000...THEN GOOD UNTIL 1100...THEN EXCELLENT. HAINES INDEX........2 VERY LOW. .FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5... .FRIDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE MID 30S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S. WEST WINDS AROUND 16 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 35 MPH. .SATURDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 1200. LOWS IN THE MID 30S. HIGHS AROUND 60. SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 13 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 35 MPH. .SUNDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS AND SNOW SHOWERS UNTIL 1200...THEN SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S. SOUTH WINDS AROUND 13 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 30 MPH. FIRE WEATHER TABLE FOR MUD SPRINGS. +++ DATA IN THE FOLLOWING TABLE HAS BEEN SAMPLED DIRECTLY FROM THE FORECAST DATABASE. VALUES IN THE TABLE MAY VARY SLIGHTLY FROM INFORMATION IN THE NARRATIVE FORECAST. PLEASE PROVIDE FEEDBACK IF THE INFORMATION IN THIS TABLE HAS BEEN REPRESENTATIVE AND/OR USEFUL. +++ FORECAST SC PP WR AT RH 20FT G H L 10K MIXG TRAN VENTL AJTV VALID AT % % % F % WIND S I A WIND HGT WIND RATE RATNG MPH T L MPH AGL MPH KT-FT 05/25-08 26 10 2 39 37 NW17 28 3 1 W 9 3223 NW21 58553 F 05/25-09 43 5 2 43 33 NW18 30 3 1 W10 4299 NW21 78228 G 05/25-10 43 5 2 47 29 NW16 26 3 1 W13 5815 NW18 87991 G 05/25-11 43 5 2 50 28 NW13 21 2 1 NW17 7332 NW16 97755 G 05/25-12 31 5 1 52 27 NW10 16 2 1 NW21 8848 NW14 107518 V 05/25-13 31 5 1 54 27 NW 9 15 2 1 NW24 9086 NW14 109168 V 05/25-14 31 5 1 54 28 NW 9 15 2 1 NW26 9324 NW14 110819 V 05/25-15 16 5 1 55 28 NW 9 15 2 1 NW29 9562 NW14 112469 V 05/25-16 16 5 1 55 29 NW 9 14 2 1 NW30 8811 NW13 98848 G 05/25-17 16 5 1 55 30 NW 8 13 2 1 NW31 8060 NW12 85226 G 05/25-18 15 0 0 53 33 W 7 7 2 1 NW32 7309 W12 71604 G 05/25-19 15 0 0 52 36 W 5 5 2 1 NW31 5255 W 9 48973 F 05/25-20 15 0 0 48 42 W 3 3 2 1 W31 3200 W 6 26341 P 05/25-21 6 0 0 45 50 SW 2 2 2 1 W31 1146 W 3 3710 P 05/25-22 6 0 0 42 56 SW 3 3 2 1 W32 914 SW 6 3601 P 05/25-23 6 0 0 40 62 SW 5 5 2 1 W35 683 S 7 3492 P 05/26-00 0 0 0 39 67 S 6 6 2 1 W37 451 S 8 3383 P 05/26-01 0 0 0 37 71 SW 7 7 2 1 W40 556 S 9 4910 P 05/26-02 0 0 0 36 75 SW 7 7 2 1 W43 661 SW10 6437 P 05/26-03 15 0 0 35 77 SW 7 7 2 1 W45 767 SW12 7964 P 05/26-04 15 0 0 34 77 SW 7 7 2 1 W47 676 SW12 6746 P 05/26-05 15 0 0 34 76 SW 7 7 2 1 W48 585 SW10 5527 P 05/26-06 32 0 0 34 74 SW 7 7 2 1 W49 494 SW10 4308 P 05/26-07 32 0 0 37 65 SW 8 13 2 1 W48 745 SW14 10016 P 05/26-08 32 0 0 41 52 SW10 16 2 1 W47 996 SW16 15723 P 05/26-09 32 0 0 46 42 SW13 21 2 1 W47 1246 SW20 21430 P 05/26-10 32 0 0 50 34 SW17 28 2 1 W47 2947 SW28 94481 G 05/26-11 32 0 0 54 30 SW23 36 2 1 W48 4649 SW36 167532 E 05/26-12 66 10 2 56 26 SW26 43 2 2 W49 6350 W44 240583 E 05/26-13 66 10 2 58 24 SW28 44 2 2 W51 7126 W43 264508 E 05/26-14 66 10 2 59 23 W26 43 2 2 W52 7903 W43 288433 E 05/26-15 66 10 2 59 22 W25 40 2 2 W52 8680 W41 312357 E 05/26-16 66 10 2 60 22 W25 40 2 2 W48 8159 W40 284376 E 05/26-17 66 10 2 59 22 W24 39 2 2 SW44 7638 W38 256395 E 05/26-18 66 10 2 58 23 W23 37 2 2 SW39 7117 W37 228413 E 05/26-19 66 10 2 56 25 W20 31 2 2 SW35 5769 W35 178405 E 05/26-20 66 10 2 52 30 W16 25 2 2 SW32 4422 W32 128397 V 05/26-21 66 10 2 48 35 W13 21 2 2 SW31 3074 W29 78389 G 05/26-22 66 10 2 46 39 W12 18 2 2 SW33 2167 W25 54010 F 05/26-23 66 10 2 44 43 W12 17 2 2 SW38 1259 W21 29631 P 05/27-00 53 0 0 42 46 W12 18 2 1 SW41 352 W17 5252 P 05/27-01 53 0 0 40 48 W13 20 2 1 W44 384 W17 5870 P 05/27-02 53 0 0 39 50 W13 21 2 1 W45 417 W18 6488 P 05/27-03 53 0 0 37 50 NW14 22 2 1 W47 449 W18 7105 P 05/27-04 53 0 0 37 49 NW13 21 2 1 W49 724 W20 13207 P 05/27-05 53 0 0 37 47 W12 18 2 1 W53 998 W22 19308 P 05/27-06 53 0 0 36 45 W12 18 2 1 W58 1273 W23 25410 P 05/27-07 53 0 0 38 39 W13 21 2 1 W62 2713 W29 82858 G 05/27-08 53 0 0 42 33 W16 25 2 1 W67 4153 W35 140305 V 05/27-09 53 0 0 46 27 W18 30 2 1 W70 5593 W40 197753 E 05/27-10 53 0 0 49 22 W21 32 2 1 W70 6304 W43 235617 E 05/27-11 53 0 0 52 20 W22 36 2 1 W70 7015 W45 273482 E 05/27-12 47 0 0 54 18 W23 37 2 1 W69 7726 W46 311347 E 05/27-13 47 0 0 56 18 W23 37 2 1 W70 7590 W45 298936 E 05/27-14 47 0 0 56 18 W23 36 2 1 W71 7453 W44 286525 E 05/27-15 47 0 0 57 18 W22 35 2 1 W71 7317 W43 274114 E 05/27-16 47 0 0 57 19 W22 36 2 1 W73 7028 W41 256320 E 05/27-17 47 0 0 57 20 W22 36 2 1 W71 6739 W40 238525 E 05/27-18 47 0 0 55 22 W21 33 2 1 W70 6451 W39 220730 E 05/27-19 47 0 0 54 24 W16 26 2 1 W67 5758 W33 174909 E 05/27-20 47 0 0 50 28 W12 18 2 1 W62 5065 W28 129088 V 05/27-21 47 0 0 47 32 W 7 7 2 1 W58 4372 W22 83267 G 05/27-22 47 0 0 45 34 W 5 5 2 1 W58 3071 W17 56652 F 05/27-23 47 0 0 43 37 SW 5 5 2 1 W58 1770 SW13 30037 P 05/28-00 41 0 0 42 39 SW 5 5 2 1 W59 469 SW 8 3421 P 05/28-01 41 0 0 40 42 SW 5 5 2 1 W60 424 SW 8 3040 P 05/28-02 41 0 0 39 44 W 5 5 2 1 W61 379 SW 8 2659 P 05/28-03 41 0 0 38 47 W 6 6 2 1 W63 334 SW 8 2277 P 05/28-04 41 0 0 38 49 W 7 7 2 1 W64 367 SW 9 3120 P 05/28-05 41 0 0 37 50 W 8 13 2 1 W66 399 W12 3963 P 05/28-06 41 0 0 37 50 W 9 15 2 1 W68 431 W13 4805 P KEY: FORECAST - MONTH/DAY-HOUR OF FORECAST /24-HOUR CLOCK LOCAL TIME/ VALID AT SC - SKY COVER /PERCENT/ PP - PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION 0.01 INCH /PERCENT/ WR - PROBABILITY OF WETTING RAIN 0.1 INCH /PERCENT/ AT - TEMPERATURE /DEGREES F/ RH - RELATIVE HUMIDITY /PERCENT/ 20FT WIND - 20-FOOT WIND /MPH/ GST - 20-FOOT WIND GUST /MPH/ HI - HAINES INDEX LAL - LIGHTNING ACTIVITY LEVEL 10K WIND - 10000 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL FREE-AIR WINDS /MPH/ MIXG HGT - MIXING HEIGHT /FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL/ TRAN WIND - TRANSPORT WINDS /MPH/ VENTL RATE - VENTILATION RATE /KNOT-FEET/ AJTV RATNG - SMOKE DISPERSION ADJECTIVE RATING P - POOR F - FAIR G - GOOD V - VERY GOOD E- EXCELLENT $$ FORECASTER...LESZCYNSKI...WFO BOULDER REQUESTED BY...LARRY LONG REASON FOR REQUEST...PRESCRIBED .TAG 20110526.MUDSP.01/BOU