FNUS75 KPUB 271918
FWSPUB

SPOT FORECAST FOR BEAR...LAS ANIMAS COUNTY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
118 PM MDT FRI MAY 27 2011

IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...

A SURFACE WEATHER BOUNDARY LIES GENERALLY EAST-WEST ACROSS NORTHERN
NEW MEXICO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. NORTH OF THIS BOUNDARY...WINDS WERE
GENERALLY FROM THE SOUTHEAST...AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WERE IN
25% TO 30% RANGE. SOUTH OF THIS BOUNDARY...20 FOOT WINDS WERE FROM THE
SOUTHWEST AND WERE GUSTING TO 25 TO 30 MPH. HUMIDITY VALUES SOUTH OF
THIS BOUNDARY WERE IN THE TEENS.

THIS BOUNDARY IS FCST TO LIFT TO THE NORTH...INTO FAR SOUTHERN COLORADO
THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST AND BECOME GUSTY.
HUMIDITY VALUES WILL DROP TO 15 TO 20 PERCENT AT THE FIRE SITE. THE WINDS
WILL LIKELY SHIFT BETWEEN 1500 LOCAL AND 1600 LOCAL...3PM TO 4 PM MDT.

BY EARLY THIS EVENING...AT OR ABOUT 2000 LOCAL...8 PM...WINDS WILL
DECREASE AND SHIFT TO A LIGHTER WESTERLY DIRECTION.

NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

NOTE: A RED FLAG WARNING WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED FOR THIS AREA FOR TOMORROW
AS WE EXPECT STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS OVER THE FIRE SITE TOMORROW.

QUESTION...IS THIS A WILD FIRE OR PRESCRIBED BURN??

HODANISH

.TODAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....74-79F.
MIN HUMIDITY........10-15 PERCENT.
20 FOOT WIND........SOUTH 15 TO 20 MPH UNTIL 1500...THEN SOUTHWEST
                    17-21 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 38 MPH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......1000 FT AGL UNTIL 0900...THEN 7500 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WIND......WEST 24 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....EXCELLENT.
HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
LAL.................1.

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLEAR.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....51-56F.
MAX HUMIDITY........33-38 PERCENT.
20 FOOT WIND........SOUTHWEST WINDS 13-17 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND
                    33 MPH UNTIL 0300...THEN WEST 4 TO 8 MPH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......6500 FT AGL UNTIL 1900...THEN 500 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WIND......WEST AROUND 24 MPH UNTIL 0200...THEN AROUND 15
                    MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....VERY GOOD UNTIL 1900...THEN POOR.
HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
LAL.................1.

.SATURDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY(34 PERCENT).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....79-84F.
MIN HUMIDITY........8-13 PERCENT.
20 FOOT WIND........SOUTHWEST WINDS 18-22 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND
                    39 MPH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......1000 FT AGL UNTIL 0900...THEN 10000 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WIND......SOUTHWEST AROUND 23 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR UNTIL 0700. EXCELLENT AFTER 1400.
HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
LAL.................1.

$$
FORECASTER...HODANISH
REQUESTED BY...DISPATCHER
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20110527.BEAR_.01/PUB