FNUS72 KMHX 281938 FWSMHX SPOT FORECAST FOR PAINS BAY FIRE...NCDFR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC 338 PM EDT SAT MAY 28 2011 FORECAST IS BASED ON REQUEST TIME OF 1521 EDT ON MAY 28. IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE, CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. .DISCUSSION... HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH MONDAY. A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE REGION TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WITH LIMITED MOISTURE WILL CROSS THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. LOCAL SEA BREEZES ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP SUNDAY AFTERNOON IN THE WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT PRODUCED BY HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING INTO THE AREA FROM THE EAST. THE GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING THAT THE GRADIENT WIND DIRECTION WILL BE OUT OF THE SSE. WIND SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE 5 TO 10 MPH BUT COULD LOCALLY INCREASE TO 15 MPH DURING THE AFTERNOON IN VICINITY OF THE SEA BREEZE. .REST OF TONIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY...THEN BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE EVENING. MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 70. MAX HUMIDITY........97 PERCENT. 20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTH WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH UNTIL EARLY MORNING...BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE EVENING. HAINES INDEX........3 TO 5 OR OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH TO OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. MIXING HEIGHT.......2700-4500 FT AGL...DECREASING TO 300 FT AGL. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 10 TO 15 MPH...DECREASING TO AROUND 5 MPH LATE. TIME (EDT) 3 PM 5 PM 7 PM 9 PM 11 PM 1 AM 3 AM 5 AM SKY (%).............69 61 54 51 48 44 44 44 WEATHER COV.........SCTTRD SCTTRD SCTTRD WEATHER TYPE........TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE TEMP................82 81 80 76 75 74 73 72 RH..................61 65 67 76 79 79 81 87 20 FT WIND (MPH)....S 11 S 11 S 9 S 7 S 6 S 5 S 4 S 3 20 FT WIND GUST.....20 20 15 10 10 5 5 LVORI...............1 1 3 4 4 4 6 6 HAINES INDEX........4 4 5 5 4 4 4 3 .SUNDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY. MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 85. MIN HUMIDITY........55 PERCENT. 20-FOOT WINDS.......LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS...BECOMING SOUTHEAST 5 TO 10 MPH EARLY IN THE MORNING. HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. MIXING HEIGHT.......700 FT AGL...INCREASING TO 5500 FT AGL. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 10 TO 15 MPH. TIME (EDT) 6 AM 8 AM 10 AM NOON 2 PM 4 PM SKY (%).............44 45 48 52 55 45 WEATHER COV......... WEATHER TYPE........NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE TEMP................72 74 79 82 84 84 RH..................87 82 69 63 59 59 20 FT WIND (MPH)....S 4 S 5 S 5 SE 6 SE 8 SE 8 20 FT WIND GUST.....5 10 10 15 LVORI...............5 4 3 1 1 1 HAINES INDEX........3 3 3 3 3 3 .SUNDAY NIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY. MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 68. MAX HUMIDITY........97 PERCENT. 20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH IN THE EVENING...BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE. HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. MIXING HEIGHT.......3300 FT AGL...DECREASING TO 300 FT AGL IN THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 10 TO 15 MPH. TIME (EDT) 6 PM 8 PM 10 PM MIDNGT 2 AM 4 AM SKY (%).............32 22 22 21 21 20 WEATHER COV......... WEATHER TYPE........NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE TEMP................81 77 74 72 71 70 RH..................63 71 82 87 87 93 20 FT WIND (MPH)....S 8 S 7 S 5 S 5 S 4 SW 3 20 FT WIND GUST.....12 10 5 5 LVORI...............1 3 4 6 9 9 HAINES INDEX........3 3 3 3 3 3 .MEMORIAL DAY... SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY. MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 86. MIN HUMIDITY........55 PERCENT. 20-FOOT WINDS.......LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS...BECOMING SOUTH 5 TO 10 MPH LATE IN THE MORNING. HAINES INDEX........3 TO 4 OR OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH TO OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. MIXING HEIGHT.......300 FT AGL...INCREASING TO 5200 FT AGL. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 5 TO 10 MPH. TIME (EDT) 6 AM 8 AM 10 AM NOON 2 PM 4 PM SKY (%).............20 19 19 20 20 22 WEATHER COV......... WEATHER TYPE........NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE TEMP................69 72 78 83 85 84 RH..................97 87 71 61 55 57 20 FT WIND (MPH)....SW 3 SW 3 SW 4 S 5 S 5 S 6 20 FT WIND GUST.....5 5 5 10 10 10 LVORI...............8 6 3 2 2 2 HAINES INDEX........3 3 3 3 4 4 $$ FORECASTER...ELARDO REQUESTED BY...LLOYD BROWN TYPE OF REQUEST...WILDFIRE .TAG 20110528.PAINS.02/MHX