FNUS72 KMHX 291007 FWSMHX SPOT FORECAST FOR PAINS BAY FIRE...NCDFR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC 607 AM EDT SUN MAY 29 2011 FORECAST IS BASED ON REQUEST TIME OF 0552 EDT ON MAY 29. IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE, CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. .DISCUSSION... HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH MONDAY. A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE REGION TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WITH LIMITED MOISTURE WILL CROSS THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. LOCAL SEA BREEZES ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON IN THE WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT PRODUCED BY HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING INTO THE AREA FROM THE EAST. THE GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING THAT THE GRADIENT WIND DIRECTION WILL BE OUT OF THE SSE. WIND SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE 5 TO 10 MPH BUT COULD LOCALLY INCREASE TO 15 MPH DURING THE AFTERNOON IN VICINITY OF THE SEA BREEZE. THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM THIS AFTERNOON. .TODAY... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY...BECOMING MOSTLY SUNNY LATE THIS MORNING AND THIS AFTERNOON. AREAS OF FOG AND SMOKE EARLY THIS MORNING. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 85. MIN HUMIDITY........55 PERCENT. 20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTH WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH...BECOMING SE THIS AFTERNOON. HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. MIXING HEIGHT.......300 FT AGL...INCREASING TO 5400-5900 FT AGL THIS AFTERNOON. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 7 TO 16 MPH. LVORI...............4. TIME (EDT) 6 AM 8 AM 10 AM NOON 2 PM 4 PM SKY (%).............36 40 43 47 50 41 WEATHER COV.........AREAS WEATHER TYPE........FOG NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE TEMP................72 74 77 81 83 82 RH..................87 82 74 67 61 61 20 FT WIND (MPH)....S 3 S 4 S 5 S 6 S 7 S 8 20 FT WIND GUST.....5 5 10 10 15 15 LVORI...............6 4 3 3 1 1 HAINES INDEX........3 3 3 3 3 3 .TONIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY. MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 69. MAX HUMIDITY........97 PERCENT. 20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTH WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH UNTIL EARLY MORNING...BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE. HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. MIXING HEIGHT.......300-2200 FT AGL. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 10 TO 15 MPH. LVORI...............4. TIME (EDT) 6 PM 8 PM 10 PM MIDNGT 2 AM 4 AM SKY (%).............34 22 21 21 20 20 WEATHER COV......... WEATHER TYPE........NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE TEMP................80 75 73 72 70 69 RH..................65 76 81 84 93 93 20 FT WIND (MPH)....S 8 S 7 S 6 S 5 S 5 SW 3 20 FT WIND GUST.....15 10 10 5 LVORI...............1 4 4 5 6 6 HAINES INDEX........3 3 3 3 3 3 .MEMORIAL DAY... SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY. MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 86. MIN HUMIDITY........55 PERCENT. 20-FOOT WINDS.......LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS...BECOMING SOUTH 5 TO 10 MPH LATE IN THE MORNING. HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. MIXING HEIGHT.......300-1600 FT AGL...INCREASING TO 4600-5200 FT AGL. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 5 TO 12 MPH. LVORI...............5. TIME (EDT) 6 AM 8 AM 10 AM NOON 2 PM 4 PM SKY (%).............20 20 22 25 27 28 WEATHER COV......... WEATHER TYPE........NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE TEMP................69 73 78 82 84 84 RH..................97 87 71 61 57 57 20 FT WIND (MPH)....SW 3 SW 4 SW 4 S 5 S 5 S 6 20 FT WIND GUST.....5 5 5 10 LVORI...............7 5 3 2 2 2 HAINES INDEX........3 3 3 3 3 3 $$ FORECASTER...DAIL REQUESTED BY...LLOYD BROWN TYPE OF REQUEST...WILDFIRE .TAG 20110529.PAINS.01/MHX