FNUS72 KMHX 301029 FWSMHX SPOT FORECAST FOR PAINS BAY FIRE...NCDFR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC 629 AM EDT MON MAY 30 2011 FORECAST IS BASED ON REQUEST TIME OF 0610 EDT ON MAY 30. IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE, CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. .DISCUSSION... HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN CENTERED OVER THE REGION TODAY. A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND PERSIST THROUGH THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WITH LIMITED MOISTURE WILL CROSS THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. LOCAL SEA BREEZE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON IN THE FAIRLY WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT. THE GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING THAT THE GRADIENT WIND DIRECTION WILL BE OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST THIS MORNING THEN BECOMING SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON. WIND SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE 5 TO 10 MPH BUT COULD LOCALLY INCREASE TO 15 MPH DURING THE AFTERNOON IN VICINITY OF THE SEA BREEZE. THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM THIS AFTERNOON. .TODAY... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 87. MIN HUMIDITY........55 PERCENT. 20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH...BECOMING SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS TO 15 MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS. HAINES INDEX........3 TO 4 OR OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH TO OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. MIXING HEIGHT.......300 FT AGL...INCREASING TO 4500-5000 FT AGL THIS AFTERNOON. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 6 TO 14 MPH. LVORI...............4. TIME (EDT) 6 AM 8 AM 10 AM NOON 2 PM 4 PM SKY (%).............21 25 29 34 38 38 WEATHER COV.........AREAS AREAS S CHC S CHC WEATHER TYPE........FOG FOG NONE NONE TSTORM TSTORM TEMP................70 73 79 82 84 83 RH..................93 84 69 61 55 59 20 FT WIND (MPH)....SW 5 SW 5 SW 5 S 5 S 6 S 7 20 FT WIND GUST..... 10 10 10 15 15 LVORI...............6 4 3 2 2 2 HAINES INDEX........3 3 3 3 4 3 .TONIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE EVENING. MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 71. MAX HUMIDITY........95 PERCENT. 20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH. HAINES INDEX........3 TO 4 OR OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH TO OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. MIXING HEIGHT.......300-1500 FT AGL. TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 10 TO 15 MPH. LVORI...............5. TIME (EDT) 6 PM 8 PM 10 PM MIDNGT 2 AM 4 AM SKY (%).............35 28 27 26 25 21 WEATHER COV.........S CHC WEATHER TYPE........TSTORM NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE TEMP................81 78 76 74 73 72 RH..................65 71 79 84 87 90 20 FT WIND (MPH)....S 8 S 7 S 7 SW 6 SW 6 SW 5 20 FT WIND GUST.....15 15 10 10 10 LVORI...............3 3 4 4 5 6 HAINES INDEX........3 3 3 3 3 4 .TUESDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY. MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 88. MIN HUMIDITY........55 PERCENT. 20-FOOT WINDS.......EAST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH. HAINES INDEX........4 TO 5 OR OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH TO OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. MIXING HEIGHT.......300-2000 FT AGL...INCREASING TO 4500-5000 FT AGL IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTH 8 TO 15 MPH...BECOMING NORTHEAST 16 TO 18 MPH LATE IN THE MORNING. LVORI...............3. TIME (EDT) 6 AM 8 AM 10 AM NOON 2 PM 4 PM SKY (%).............16 12 19 23 26 28 WEATHER COV......... WEATHER TYPE........NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE TEMP................73 75 80 85 87 86 RH..................87 84 72 61 57 59 20 FT WIND (MPH)....W 5 W 5 NW 5 NE 5 E 6 E 6 20 FT WIND GUST..... 10 10 LVORI...............5 4 1 1 1 1 HAINES INDEX........4 5 4 4 5 5 $$ FORECASTER...DAIL REQUESTED BY...LLOYD BROWN TYPE OF REQUEST...WILDFIRE .TAG 20110530.PAINS.01/MHX