FNUS72 KMHX 301934 FWSMHX SPOT FORECAST FOR PAINS BAY FIRE...NCDFR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC 334 PM EDT MON MAY 30 2011 FORECAST IS BASED ON REQUEST TIME OF 1517 EDT ON MAY 30. IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE, CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. .DISCUSSION... SFC HIGH PRES WILL REMAIN OVER THE FIRE AREA THROUGH THIS EVENING. THERE IS STILL A VERY SMALL CHANCE OF A STRAY THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPING THROUGH EARLY EVENING...AS THE ATMOSPHERE REMAINS UNSTABLE. LACK OF LIFT WILL KEEP THE CHANCE OF A THUNDERSTORM VERY LOW...THOUGH ANY STORM THAT DEVELOPS WILL MOVE SLOWLY AND PRODUCE HEAVY RAIN IN A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME. A WEAK SFC COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA VERY LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY TUE MORNING...WITH WINDS VEERING FROM SW TO W...THEN NW AND EVENTUALLY NE BY TUE AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL GUST TO AROUND 15 MPH BY TUE AFTERNOON. .TONIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLEAR. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE EVENING. MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 70. MAX HUMIDITY........93 PERCENT. 20-FOOT WINDS.......WEST WINDS 6 TO 8 MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE EVENING. HAINES INDEX........3 TO 4 OR OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH TO OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. MIXING HEIGHT.......300 FT AGL. TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 8 TO 16 MPH. LVORI...............5. TIME (EDT) 6 PM 8 PM 10 PM MIDNGT 2 AM 4 AM SKY (%).............25 23 23 23 23 19 WEATHER COV.........ISOLTD WEATHER TYPE........TSTORM NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE TEMP................81 79 76 74 72 71 RH..................65 74 79 82 87 90 20 FT WIND (MPH)....SW 6 SW 7 SW 7 SW 7 SW 6 W 5 20 FT WIND GUST.....10 10 15 10 10 LVORI...............3 3 4 4 5 6 HAINES INDEX........3 3 4 4 4 4 .TUESDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY. MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 86. MIN HUMIDITY........61 PERCENT. 20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 9 MPH. HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. MIXING HEIGHT.......300-2200 FT AGL...INCREASING TO 3100-3900 FT AGL LATE IN THE MORNING. TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHEAST 9 TO 16 MPH. LVORI...............4. TIME (EDT) 6 AM 8 AM 10 AM NOON 2 PM 4 PM SKY (%).............14 10 15 21 26 26 WEATHER COV......... WEATHER TYPE........NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE TEMP................70 76 83 85 86 86 RH..................97 82 67 65 63 61 20 FT WIND (MPH)....W 5 NW 5 NW 6 N 7 NE 8 NE 7 20 FT WIND GUST..... 10 15 15 LVORI...............7 4 3 1 1 1 HAINES INDEX........4 4 4 4 4 4 .TUESDAY NIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY. MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 70. MAX HUMIDITY........90 PERCENT. 20-FOOT WINDS.......EAST WINDS 5 TO 8 MPH. HAINES INDEX........4 TO 5 OR OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH TO OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. MIXING HEIGHT.......1900-3300 FT AGL...DECREASING TO 300-1300 FT AGL IN THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. TRANSPORT WINDS.....EAST 8 TO 14 MPH. LVORI...............4. TIME (EDT) 6 PM 8 PM 10 PM MIDNGT 2 AM 4 AM SKY (%).............27 28 29 31 33 32 WEATHER COV......... WEATHER TYPE........NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE TEMP................84 79 77 75 73 72 RH..................65 77 79 83 88 87 20 FT WIND (MPH)....NE 7 NE 6 NE 5 NE 5 NE 5 E 5 20 FT WIND GUST.....10 10 LVORI...............1 3 4 5 5 6 HAINES INDEX........4 5 5 5 5 5 .WEDNESDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY. MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 79. MIN HUMIDITY........70 PERCENT. 20-FOOT WINDS.......EAST WINDS 5 TO 8 MPH. HAINES INDEX........4 TO 5 OR OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH TO OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. MIXING HEIGHT.......300-2000 FT AGL. TRANSPORT WINDS.....EAST 7 TO 10 MPH. LVORI...............5. TIME (EDT) 6 AM 8 AM 10 AM NOON 2 PM 4 PM SKY (%).............32 32 32 32 32 33 WEATHER COV......... WEATHER TYPE........NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE TEMP................71 72 75 77 79 78 RH..................91 87 79 73 70 71 20 FT WIND (MPH)....E 5 NE 5 E 5 E 5 E 6 E 7 20 FT WIND GUST..... 10 10 LVORI...............6 5 4 3 3 3 HAINES INDEX........5 5 4 4 5 5 $$ FORECASTER...LONKA REQUESTED BY...LLOYD BROWN TYPE OF REQUEST...WILDFIRE .TAG 20110530.PAINS.02/MHX