FNAK79 PAFG 311649
FWSAFG

SPOT FORECAST FOR MC CORD CREEK...ALASKA FIRE SERVICE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
849 AM AKDT TUE MAY 31 2011

FORECAST IS BASED ON REQUEST TIME OF 0814 AKDT ON MAY 31.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...A THERMAL LOW NEAR FORT YUKON WILL DRIFT SOUTH OVER THE FIRE
AND STRENGTHEN THIS AFTERNOON AND STRENGTHEN MORE THROUGH WED. THIS WILL
CAUSE SOUTHWEST WINDS TO INCREASE TODAY AS THEY BLOW INTO THIS TROUGH.

A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS OVER THE EASTERN INTERIOR WILL PERSIST
TODAY GIVING SOME THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT
LIES WEST OF THE FIRE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE FIRE THIS AFTERNOON.
THIS WILL ASSIST IN CAUSING ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TODAY WITH THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPMENT BEING INHIBITED AFTER THE TROUGH MOVES EAST OF THE FIRE THIS
EVENING.

SOUTHERLY CHINOOK WINDS ACROSS THE ALASKA RANGE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT WILL KEEP CONDITIONS DRY AGAIN TODAY.


.TODAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (40 PERCENT). A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
                    THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 78.
MIN HUMIDITY........26 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHWEST WINDS 3-5 MPH INCREASING TO 7G11 MPH BY 3PM.
                    GUSTY WINDS VARYING IN DIRECTION NEAR THUNDERSTORMS
                    IN THE AFTERNOON.
CWR.................10 PERCENT.
LAL.................2.
MIXING HEIGHT.......3900 FT AGL INCREASING TO 8000 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 10 MPH.

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (40 PERCENT). A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
                    THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EARLY EVENING.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....47.
MAX HUMIDITY........62 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHWEST 7 G11 MPH DIMINISHING AFTER 10 MPH AND
                    BECOMING EAST 3 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT. GUSTY WINDS
                    VARYING IN DIRECTION NEAR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EVENING.
CWR.................10 PERCENT.
LAL.................2.
MIXING HEIGHT.......8000 FT AGL DECREASING TO 1000 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 10 MPH BECOMING EAST 3 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT.

.WEDNESDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........INCREASING CLOUDS (80 PERCENT).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 72.
MIN HUMIDITY........37 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........EAST WINDS 3 MPH INCREASING TO 5-9 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.
CWR.................0 PERCENT.
LAL.................1.
MIXING HEIGHT.......1000 FT AGL INCREASING TO 7300 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....EAST AROUND 5 MPH.

$$
FORECASTER...BRADER
REQUESTED BY...JAMES HIGGINS
TYPE OF REQUEST...WILDFIRE
.TAG 20110531.MCCOR.01/AFG