FNUS72 KMHX 011938 FWSMHX SPOT FORECAST FOR PAINS BAY...NCDFR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC 338 PM EDT WED JUN 1 2011 FORECAST IS BASED ON REQUEST TIME OF 1518 EDT ON JUNE 01. IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE, CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. .DISCUSSION... OVER THE FIRE AREA...SOUTHEAST WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL CONTINUE TO VEER TO THE SOUTH EARLY THIS EVENING AND THEN SW LATE IN THE EVENING. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...MAINLY DRY...WITH WINDS CONTINUING TO VEER WEST. WINDS CONTINUE TO VEER AROUND TO THE NORTH BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE ON THURSDAY MORNING...BECOMING NORTHEAST BY LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL BE MUCH LOWER...IN THE MID 40'S...AS COMPARED TO TODAY'S VALUES AS A DRIER AIR MASS MOVES IN BEHIND THE FRONT. .TONIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AFTER MIDNIGHT. MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 72. MAX HUMIDITY........81 PERCENT. 20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 7 MPH UNTIL EARLY MORNING...BECOMING WEST LATE. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS AFTER MIDNIGHT. HAINES INDEX........3 TO 5 OR OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. MIXING HEIGHT.......1000 FT AGL IN THE EVENING...DECREASING TO 300-500 FT AGL IN THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 8 TO 15 MPH. LVORI...............4. TIME (EDT) 6 PM 8 PM 10 PM MIDNGT 2 AM 4 AM SKY (%).............24 27 27 27 28 30 WEATHER COV......... S CHC S CHC WEATHER TYPE........NONE NONE NONE NONE TSTORM TSTORM TEMP................83 80 78 77 75 74 RH..................70 72 74 76 79 79 20 FT WIND (MPH)....S 6 S 5 SW 5 SW 6 SW 5 W 4 20 FT WIND GUST.....10 10 10 10 10 5 LVORI...............3 3 3 4 4 4 HAINES INDEX........5 5 4 4 5 4 .THURSDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY. PATCHY FOG EARLY IN THE MORNING. MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 84. MIN HUMIDITY........44 PERCENT. 20-FOOT WINDS.......LIGHT NORTH WINDS EARLY IN THE MORNING...BECOMING EAST 6 TO 11 MPH BY LATE AFTERNOON. HAINES INDEX........3 TO 5 OR OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. MIXING HEIGHT.......300 FT AGL EARLY IN THE MORNING...INCREASING TO 2700-3300 FT AGL LATE IN THE MORNING. TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHEAST 7 TO 15 MPH...BECOMING SOUTHEAST 3 TO 5 MPH LATE. LVORI...............3. TIME (EDT) 6 AM 8 AM 10 AM NOON 2 PM 4 PM SKY (%).............35 34 21 16 12 10 WEATHER COV.........PATCHY PATCHY WEATHER TYPE........FOG FOG NONE NONE NONE NONE TEMP................72 76 81 82 84 84 RH..................81 74 71 56 44 47 20 FT WIND (MPH)....NW 3 NW 5 N 8 NE 10 NE 9 E 7 20 FT WIND GUST.....5 15 15 15 10 LVORI...............4 3 3 2 2 2 HAINES INDEX........3 4 4 4 4 5 .THURSDAY NIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY. MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 71. MAX HUMIDITY........65 PERCENT. 20-FOOT WINDS.......EAST WINDS 5 TO 6 MPH EARLY IN THE EVENING...BECOMING NORTHEAST 6 TO 9 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT. HAINES INDEX........3 TO 6 OR OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. MIXING HEIGHT.......300 FT AGL EARLY IN THE EVENING...INCREASING TO 2500 FT AGL LATE. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 3 TO 7 MPH...BECOMING NORTH 7 TO 16 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT...THEN BECOMING NORTHEAST AROUND 18 MPH LATE. LVORI...............3. TIME (EDT) 6 PM 8 PM 10 PM MIDNGT 2 AM 4 AM SKY (%).............11 15 25 39 49 46 WEATHER COV......... WEATHER TYPE........NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE TEMP................83 78 76 74 73 72 RH..................52 54 60 63 64 65 20 FT WIND (MPH)....E 5 E 4 S 3 W 3 NE 5 NE 7 20 FT WIND GUST..... 5 5 5 10 LVORI...............2 2 3 3 3 3 HAINES INDEX........5 5 6 6 4 3 .FRIDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY. MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 82. MIN HUMIDITY........37 PERCENT. 20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHEAST WINDS 8 TO 11 MPH. HAINES INDEX........3 TO 4 OR OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. MIXING HEIGHT.......3000-4100 FT AGL. TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHEAST 12 TO 20 MPH...DECREASING TO 6 TO 9 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. LVORI...............2. TIME (EDT) 6 AM 8 AM 10 AM NOON 2 PM 4 PM SKY (%).............43 40 42 44 45 41 WEATHER COV......... WEATHER TYPE........NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE TEMP................72 74 77 80 81 81 RH..................65 60 50 42 37 40 20 FT WIND (MPH)....NE 8 NE 8 NE 10 NE 9 NE 7 E 7 20 FT WIND GUST.....15 15 20 15 10 10 LVORI...............3 2 2 2 2 2 HAINES INDEX........3 3 3 3 4 4 $$ FORECASTER...LONKA REQUESTED BY...DON WATSON TYPE OF REQUEST...WILDFIRE .TAG 20110601.PAINS.02/MHX