FNUS71 KBGM 030120 FWSBGM SPOT FORECAST FOR EALES PRESERVE - UNIT 6...THE NATURE CONSERVANCY/PA GAME COMMISSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY 920 PM EDT THU JUN 2 2011 FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1100 EDT ON JUNE 03. IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. .DISCUSSION... HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE BUILDING OVER THE AREA ON FRIDAY WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. WITH THE ONSET OF DAYTIME HEATING...EXPECT 20 FOOT WINDS TO INCREASE AS LAPSE RATES BECOME UNSTABLE. 20 FOOT WINDS OF 15-20 MPH WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 25 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON AS STRONG MIXING OCCURS. A STRONG SUBSIDENCE INVERSION ALOFT WILL LIKELY PREVENT SMOKE PLUMES FROM EXTENDING MUCH ABOVE 4000 FEET DURING THE AFTERNOON...HOWEVER STRONG LOW-LEVEL WINDS SHOULD RESULT IN ADEQUATE DISPERSION. .FRIDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY (0-10 PERCENT). MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 67. MIN HUMIDITY........27 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........NORTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 13 MPH...INCREASING TO 15 TO 18 MPH LATE IN THE MORNING. SOME GUSTS MAY REACH UP TO 25 MPH DURING THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. MIXING HEIGHT.......300-700 FT AGL...INCREASING TO 3800-5100 FT AGL LATE IN THE MORNING. TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTH-NORTHWEST 31 TO 33 MPH. LAL.................1. HAINES INDEX........3 TO 4 OR OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH TO OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....GOOD TO EXCELLENT (40600-64300 KNOT-FT). TIME (EDT) 11 AM 1 PM 3 PM 5 PM SKY (%).............6 0 0 7 WEATHER COV......... WEATHER TYPE........NONE NONE NONE NONE TEMP................58 64 67 67 RH..................39 31 27 27 20 FT WIND..........NW 15 NW 17 NW 16 NW 13 20 FT WIND GUST.....20 22 22 15 LAL.................1 1 1 1 HAINES INDEX........3 3 3 4 VRATE KT-FT/1000....41 41 64 64 .FRIDAY NIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLEAR (5-15 PERCENT). MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 43. MAX HUMIDITY........79 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........NORTH WINDS 6 TO 15 MPH...DECREASING TO AROUND 5 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT...THEN BECOMING LIGHT AFTER MIDNIGHT. MIXING HEIGHT.......3800 FT AGL...DECREASING TO 300-600 FT AGL EARLY IN THE EVENING. TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTH 23 TO 32 MPH...DECREASING TO AROUND 20 MPH LATE. LAL.................1. HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....FAIR BECOMING POOR. TIME (EDT) 6 PM 8 PM 10 PM MIDNGT 2 AM 4 AM SKY (%).............7 6 0 0 16 10 WEATHER COV......... WEATHER TYPE........NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE TEMP................65 60 54 50 47 44 RH..................29 35 43 52 60 70 20 FT WIND..........NW 10 NW 6 N 5 N 3 NE 2 E 2 20 FT WIND GUST.....15 10 5 5 5 LAL.................1 1 1 1 1 1 HAINES INDEX........4 4 4 4 4 4 VRATE KT-FT/1000....64 64 64 64 17 17 .SATURDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY (10-20 PERCENT). MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 73. MIN HUMIDITY........34 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT WINDS...BECOMING WEST 5 TO 9 MPH IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS LATE. MIXING HEIGHT.......300-700 FT AGL...INCREASING TO 3000-4600 FT AGL LATE IN THE MORNING. TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST 15 TO 20 MPH. LAL.................1. HAINES INDEX........4 TO 5 OR OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH TO OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....FAIR TO GOOD (16600-31900 KNOT-FT). TIME (EDT) 6 AM 8 AM 10 AM NOON 2 PM 4 PM SKY (%).............8 0 0 0 11 17 WEATHER COV......... ISOLTD WEATHER TYPE........NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE RNSHWR TEMP................43 49 59 67 72 73 RH..................79 66 49 39 34 35 20 FT WIND..........NE 2 W 2 W 3 W 5 W 6 W 6 20 FT WIND GUST.....5 5 10 10 LAL.................1 1 1 1 1 2 HAINES INDEX........4 4 5 5 4 4 VRATE KT-FT/1000....17 17 17 17 32 32 $$ FORECASTER...GITRO REQUESTED BY...PATRICK MCELHENNY TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED .TAG 20110603.EALES.01/BGM