FNUS75 KBOU 040038 FWSBOU SPOT FORECAST FOR GULCH PREVIOUSLY KEYSTONE ...USFS NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO 638 PM MDT FRI JUN 3 2011 IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. .DISCUSSION...AN UPPER RIDGE ALOFT WILL BE BUILDING TO BRING SLIGHTLY WARMER AND DRIER CONDITIONS TOMORROW. WIND PATTERN WILL BE VERY SIMILAR TO WHAT HAPPENED TODAY. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A THUNDERSTORM IN THE AFTERNOON...HOWEVER BELIEVE THE ACTIVITY WILL STAY EAST OF THE DIVIDE. IF ONE DOES MOVE OVER THE FIRE HOWEVER...IT WILL BE MOSTLY DRY WITH ONLY LIGHT RAIN BUT GUSTY WINDS. THE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD THROUGH THE WEEKEND TO BRING WARMER CONDITIONS HOWEVER SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE WILL BE INCREASING INTO THE RIDGE TO BEING A BETTER CHANCE OF A WET THUNDERSTORM OVER THE AREA. HUMIDITY RECOVERIES AT NIGHT SHOULD REMAIN NEAR 50 PERCENT. ...THUNDERSTORMS IMPLY STRONG...GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS... .TONIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLEAR. MIN TEMPERATURE.....34. MAX HUMIDITY........48%. 20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTH WINDS 4-10 MPH. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 17-28 MPH UNTIL 2400...THEN SOUTH AROUND 8 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......11600 FT AGL UNTIL 1900. BELOW 1000 FT AGL AFTER 2400. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....EXCELLENT UNTIL 1900. POOR AFTER 2400. HAINES INDEX........3 VERY LOW. .SATURDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY UNTIL 1200...THEN PARTLY CLOUDY(40-50%) UNTIL 1500...THEN MOSTLY CLOUDY(50-60%). SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 1200. MAX TEMPERATURE.....73. MIN HUMIDITY........13-17%. 20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS 8-14 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 19 MPH. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 9-20 MPH UNTIL 1200...THEN SOUTHWEST 20-24 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......BELOW 1000 FT AGL UNTIL 0700. 11800-12800 FT AGL AFTER 1100. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR UNTIL 0700. EXCELLENT AFTER 1200. HAINES INDEX........3 VERY LOW. .SATURDAY NIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY(50-60%) UNTIL 2100...THEN PARTLY CLOUDY(30-40%). SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL 2200. MIN TEMPERATURE.....42. MAX HUMIDITY........43%. 20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTH WINDS 10-16 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 25 MPH. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 9-20 MPH UNTIL 2400...THEN SOUTH AROUND 8 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......11400 FT AGL UNTIL 1900. BELOW 1000 FT AGL AFTER 2400. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....EXCELLENT UNTIL 1900. POOR AFTER 2400. HAINES INDEX........3 VERY LOW. .SUNDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY UNTIL 1200...THEN PARTLY CLOUDY(50-60%) UNTIL 1500...THEN MOSTLY CLOUDY(50-60%). SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 1200 UNTIL 1500. MAX TEMPERATURE.....74. MIN HUMIDITY........12-16%. 20-FOOT WINDS.......WEST WINDS 6-10 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 14 MPH. TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 13-24 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......BELOW 1000 FT AGL UNTIL 0700. 13000-14000 FT AGL AFTER 1400. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR UNTIL 0700. EXCELLENT AFTER 0900. HAINES INDEX........2 VERY LOW. .FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5... .MONDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 1200. LOWS IN THE MID 40S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S. SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 9 MPH. .TUESDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S. SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 15 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 30 MPH. .WEDNESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 1200. LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S. SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 12 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 25 MPH. .THURSDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 1200. LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S. HIGHS AROUND 70. SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 11 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 25 MPH. FIRE WEATHER TABLE FOR GULCH PREVIOUSLY KEYSTONE. +++ DATA IN THE FOLLOWING TABLE HAS BEEN SAMPLED DIRECTLY FROM THE FORECAST DATABASE. VALUES IN THE TABLE MAY VARY SLIGHTLY FROM INFORMATION IN THE NARRATIVE FORECAST. PLEASE PROVIDE FEEDBACK IF THE INFORMATION IN THIS TABLE HAS BEEN REPRESENTATIVE AND/OR USEFUL. +++ FORECAST SC PP WR AT RH 20FT G H L 10K MIXG TRAN VENTL AJTV VALID AT % % % F % WIND S I A WIND HGT WIND RATE RATNG MPH T L MPH AGL MPH KT-FT 06/03-18 16 1 0 61 20 W 8 13 2 1 SW58 11613 SW31 312985 E 06/03-19 16 1 0 59 23 SW 6 6 2 1 SW56 9235 SW28 233492 E 06/03-20 16 1 0 55 27 SW 5 5 3 1 SW53 6856 SW23 154000 E 06/03-21 16 1 0 50 32 SW 5 5 3 1 SW51 4477 SW20 74508 G 06/03-22 16 1 0 48 36 SW 6 6 3 1 SW47 3111 SW16 50677 F 06/03-23 16 1 0 45 39 SW 9 10 3 1 SW45 1746 S13 26845 P 06/04-00 18 0 0 43 42 S 9 10 3 1 SW43 380 S 9 3014 P 06/04-01 18 0 0 42 44 S 9 11 3 1 SW40 337 S 8 2518 P 06/04-02 18 0 0 40 46 S 8 10 3 1 SW40 294 S 8 2022 P 06/04-03 18 0 0 39 48 S 7 7 3 1 SW40 252 S 7 1525 P 06/04-04 18 0 0 37 48 S 6 7 3 1 SW40 267 S 8 1753 P 06/04-05 18 0 0 35 48 S 3 5 3 1 SW41 282 SE 8 1980 P 06/04-06 11 0 0 37 48 SE 4 7 3 1 SW41 297 SE 8 2208 P 06/04-07 11 0 0 40 43 S 5 8 3 1 SW41 1850 S12 27227 P 06/04-08 11 0 0 46 35 S 6 8 3 1 SW40 3402 S15 52246 F 06/04-09 11 0 0 52 28 SW 7 10 3 1 SW40 4955 SW18 77264 G 06/04-10 11 0 0 57 23 SW 8 11 3 1 SW41 7017 SW20 126723 V 06/04-11 11 0 0 61 20 SW 9 13 2 1 SW43 9079 SW22 176181 E 06/04-12 47 10 2 64 18 SW11 14 2 2 SW43 11142 SW23 225640 E 06/04-13 47 10 2 66 16 SW14 15 2 2 SW39 11905 SW23 241769 E 06/04-14 47 10 2 68 14 SW16 19 2 2 SW35 12668 SW23 257898 E 06/04-15 51 20 4 70 15 SW16 19 2 3 SW31 13431 SW23 274027 E 06/04-16 51 20 4 71 18 SW16 19 2 3 SW28 12780 SW23 251259 E 06/04-17 51 20 4 68 19 W15 17 2 3 SW26 12129 SW22 228491 E 06/04-18 52 10 2 66 20 W12 14 2 2 SW26 11479 SW21 205723 E 06/04-19 52 10 2 64 22 W10 12 2 2 SW29 9322 SW18 159887 E 06/04-20 52 10 2 60 25 W 9 11 2 2 W32 7166 SW17 114050 V 06/04-21 52 10 2 56 28 W 8 11 2 2 W36 5010 SW16 68213 G 06/04-22 43 3 1 54 30 SW 6 15 2 1 W37 2930 SW12 36114 P 06/04-23 43 3 1 52 32 SW 6 8 2 1 W37 1735 SW 9 19626 P 06/05-00 43 3 1 49 35 S 5 7 2 1 W37 540 SW 7 3137 P 06/05-01 29 3 1 46 38 S 4 7 2 1 W38 429 S 7 2537 P 06/05-02 29 1 0 47 37 S 4 7 3 1 W39 319 S 7 1937 P 06/05-03 23 1 0 45 39 S 4 7 3 1 SW40 208 S 7 1337 P 06/05-04 23 1 0 44 40 S 4 7 3 1 W43 196 S 8 1290 P 06/05-05 23 1 0 43 41 S 4 7 2 1 W45 185 S 8 1242 P 06/05-06 15 2 0 42 43 S 4 7 2 1 W46 174 SW 8 1195 P 06/05-07 15 2 0 44 42 SW 8 8 2 1 W46 2641 SW15 63821 G 06/05-08 15 2 0 51 33 SW10 16 2 1 W44 5109 W22 126447 V 06/05-09 15 2 0 62 23 W13 20 2 1 W43 7576 W29 189074 E 06/05-10 15 2 0 66 19 W14 22 2 1 W41 8818 W28 206295 E 06/05-11 15 2 0 68 18 W15 23 2 1 W40 10060 W26 223516 E 06/05-12 50 10 2 71 16 W16 24 2 2 W39 11301 W24 240738 E 06/05-13 50 10 2 70 17 W16 24 2 2 W35 12202 W23 236265 E 06/05-14 50 10 2 71 16 W16 24 2 2 W31 13102 W21 231791 E 06/05-15 53 8 2 71 16 W15 23 2 1 W28 14003 W18 227318 E 06/05-16 53 8 2 72 16 W14 21 2 1 W26 13477 W17 207351 E 06/05-17 53 8 2 71 17 W13 20 2 1 W25 12950 W16 187385 E 06/05-18 55 8 2 69 17 NW12 17 2 1 W25 12424 W15 167418 E 06/05-19 55 8 2 66 19 NW 9 14 2 1 W24 9395 W12 115349 V 06/05-20 55 8 2 62 22 N 7 7 2 1 W22 6365 W 8 63281 G 06/05-21 52 8 2 58 25 NE 6 6 2 1 W21 3335 W 3 11212 P 06/05-22 52 5 1 56 28 NE 6 6 2 1 W21 2325 W 5 7955 P 06/05-23 52 5 1 54 30 SE 6 6 3 1 W20 1314 S 5 4698 P 06/06-00 44 5 1 51 34 SE 7 7 3 1 W20 303 S 6 1441 P 06/06-01 44 7 1 48 38 S 7 7 3 1 W20 260 S 6 1348 P 06/06-02 44 7 1 48 39 S 8 8 3 1 W20 216 S 7 1255 P 06/06-03 34 7 1 47 43 S 8 8 3 1 W20 172 S 8 1162 P 06/06-04 34 7 1 45 47 S 8 8 3 1 W18 168 S 8 1178 P 06/06-05 34 7 1 45 49 S 9 9 2 1 W17 164 S 8 1195 P 06/06-06 33 7 1 44 53 SW 9 14 2 1 W16 159 S 9 1211 P 06/06-07 33 7 1 45 50 SW 9 15 2 1 W13 2083 SW 8 14362 P 06/06-08 33 7 1 52 39 SW10 15 2 1 W 9 4006 SW 8 27512 P 06/06-09 33 7 1 62 27 SW10 16 2 1 W 8 5929 SW 8 40662 F 06/06-10 33 7 1 67 23 SW10 16 2 1 SW10 7906 SW 9 69560 G 06/06-11 33 7 1 68 23 SW10 16 2 1 SW15 9882 SW10 98458 G 06/06-12 66 19 4 71 21 SW10 16 2 3 S20 11859 S13 127356 V 06/06-13 66 19 4 70 22 SW10 15 2 3 S21 12265 S14 152340 E 06/06-14 66 19 4 71 21 SW 9 15 2 3 S21 12671 S16 177325 E 06/06-15 64 31 10 71 22 SW 9 14 2 4 S22 13078 S17 202309 E 06/06-16 64 31 10 72 21 SW 9 9 2 4 S23 12550 S18 200389 E 06/06-17 64 31 10 71 23 SW 8 8 2 4 S26 12022 S20 198468 E 06/06-18 69 25 5 69 24 SW 8 8 2 4 S29 11494 S20 196548 E KEY: FORECAST - MONTH/DAY-HOUR OF FORECAST /24-HOUR CLOCK LOCAL TIME/ VALID AT SC - SKY COVER /PERCENT/ PP - PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION 0.01 INCH /PERCENT/ WR - PROBABILITY OF WETTING RAIN 0.1 INCH /PERCENT/ AT - TEMPERATURE /DEGREES F/ RH - RELATIVE HUMIDITY /PERCENT/ 20FT WIND - 20-FOOT WIND /MPH/ GST - 20-FOOT WIND GUST /MPH/ HI - HAINES INDEX LAL - LIGHTNING ACTIVITY LEVEL 10K WIND - 10000 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL FREE-AIR WINDS /MPH/ MIXG HGT - MIXING HEIGHT /FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL/ TRAN WIND - TRANSPORT WINDS /MPH/ VENTL RATE - VENTILATION RATE /KNOT-FEET/ AJTV RATNG - SMOKE DISPERSION ADJECTIVE RATING P - POOR F - FAIR G - GOOD V - VERY GOOD E- EXCELLENT $$ FORECASTER...WFO BOULDER REQUESTED BY...GRAND JUNCTION REASON FOR REQUEST...WILDFIRE .TAG 20110603.GULCH.01/BOU