FNUS73 KAPX 071919 FWSAPX SPOT FORECAST FOR GRAYLING FIRE...STATE OF MICHIGAN NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI 319 PM EDT TUE JUN 7 2011 FORECAST IS BASED ON REQUEST TIME OF 1507 EDT ON JUNE 07. IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. .DISCUSSION...NEAR RECORD WARM TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS ACROSS THE BURN SITE. SLOW MOISTURE ADVECTION SHOULD ALLOW A SLIGHT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RECOVERY THROUGH EARLY EVENING. MUCH QUICKER MOISTURE RECOVERY EXPECTED DURING THE MID AND LATE EVENING HOURS AS TEMPERATURES COOL BACK INTO THE 70S. GUSTY SOUTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING...SLOWLY VEERING MORE SOUTHWEST. VERY WARM CONDITIONS RETURN WEDNESDAY...ALONG WITH A LITTLE BETTER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. RAIN THREAT INCREASES LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. .REST OF TODAY... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (20-30 PERCENT). TEMPERATURE.........92 AT REQUEST...MAX 92. RH..................33 PERCENT AT REQUEST...MIN 32 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........WINDS SOUTH AT 10 MPH AT REQUEST...OTHERWISE SOUTH WINDS 10 TO 11 MPH. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 14 TO 15 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......6800 FT AGL AT REQUEST...OTHERWISE 6800 FT AGL. HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH AT REQUEST...MAX 4. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....EXCELLENT (900) AT REQUEST. MAX...EXCELLENT (1000). MIXING HEIGHT.......6800 FT AGL AT REQUEST...OTHERWISE 6800 FT AGL. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 14 TO 15 MPH. TIME (EDT) 4PM 5PM SKY (%).........26 26 WEATHER COV..... WEATHER TYPE.... TEMP............92 91 RH..............33 36 20 FT WIND DIR..S S 20 FT WIND SPD..9 10 20 FT WIND GUST.20 20 HAINES INDEX....4 4 SMOKE DISP......900 1000 .TONIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLEAR (20-30 PERCENT). TEMPERATURE.........MIN 69. RH..................MAX 81 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHWEST WINDS 7 TO 10 MPH. GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH EARLY IN THE MORNING. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 13 TO 20 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......3500 FT AGL DECREASING TO 100-400 FT AGL IN THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. HAINES INDEX........MIN 4. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....MIN POOR(0). MIXING HEIGHT.......3500 FT AGL DECREASING TO 100-400 FT AGL IN THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 13 TO 20 MPH. TIME (EDT) 6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM SKY (%).........26 26 20 20 20 18 18 18 22 22 22 29 WEATHER COV..... WEATHER TYPE.... TEMP............89 88 87 83 79 76 74 74 73 72 71 70 RH..............39 40 43 49 58 64 71 71 73 76 79 81 20 FT WIND DIR..S SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW 20 FT WIND SPD..9 8 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 8 8 8 20 FT WIND GUST.20 20 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 20 20 20 HAINES INDEX....4 5 4 4 4 5 5 5 4 4 4 4 SMOKE DISP......1000900 700 400 200 0 0 0 100 0 0 100 .WEDNESDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (25-35 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY (45-55 PERCENT). CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE MORNING. TEMPERATURE.........MAX 88. RH..................MIN 45 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE MORNING. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 17 TO 25 MPH DECREASING TO 16 TO 18 MPH LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. MIXING HEIGHT.......500-1500 FT AGL INCREASING TO 3300-4200 FT AGL IN THE AFTERNOON. HAINES INDEX........MAX 5. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....MAX EXCELLENT(1100). MIXING HEIGHT.......500-1500 FT AGL INCREASING TO 3300-4200 FT AGL IN THE AFTERNOON. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 17 TO 25 MPH DECREASING TO 16 TO 18 MPH LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. TIME (EDT) 6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM SKY (%).........29 29 57 57 57 57 57 57 46 46 46 46 WEATHER COV..... CHC CHC CHC WEATHER TYPE.... RW RW RW TEMP............70 72 73 76 77 78 81 85 88 88 87 85 RH..............81 76 76 69 69 67 58 51 45 45 46 50 20 FT WIND DIR..M M M M M M M M M M M M 20 FT WIND SPD..M M M M M M M M M M M M 20 FT WIND GUST.M M M M M M M M M M M M HAINES INDEX....4 4 3 3 3 4 4 4 5 5 5 4 SMOKE DISP......100 100 200 400 600 800 1000110011001000800 700 $$ FORECASTER...MIKE BOGUTH REQUESTED BY...RANDY MCKENZIE TYPE OF REQUEST...WILDFIRE .TAG 20110607.GRAYL.01/APX