FNUS72 KJAX 081137
FWSJAX

SPOT FORECAST FOR IMPASSABLE BAY...USDA- FOREST SERVICE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
737 AM EDT WED JUN 8 2011

FORECAST IS BASED ON REQUEST TIME OF 0722 EDT ON JUNE 08.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM
EDT THIS EVENING...

.DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN TODAY BOTH AT THE SURFACE
AND ALOFT. THIS WILL LEAD TO SUBSIDENCE AND A GENERAL INHIBITING IMPACT
ON THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. NO SIGNIFICANT WIND SHIFTS ARE EXPECTED WITH
AN EASTERLY FLOW ALL DAY. AS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN SEA BREEZE FRONT PENETRATES
TO THE FIRE AREA LATER THIS AFTERNOON THERE WILL BE AN INCREASE IN WIND SPEED
TO 8 TO 12 MPH WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 20 MPH. THIS SHOULD OCCUR BETWEEN
14-16:00 LOCAL TIME. I HAVE DROPPED THE AFTERNOON RH VALUES FOR THE FIRE
AREA BASED ON A SLIGHTLY SLOWER SEA BREEZE FRONT PASSAGE OVER THE PREVIOUS
FORECASTERS ESTIMATION AND THUS SLIGHTLY HIGHER AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES.

.TODAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (25-35 PERCENT).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....NEAR 95.
MIN HUMIDITY........28 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT WINDS BECOMING EAST 5 TO 12 MPH DURING THE
                    LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON.
LAL.................1.
MIXING HEIGHT.......1000-1700 FT AGL INCREASING TO 5300-6100 FT
                    AGL.
MIXING WINDS........EAST 8 TO 15 MPH.
DISPERSION INDEX....63.

TIME (EDT)      7 AM   9 AM   11 AM  1 PM   3 PM   5 PM
SKY (%).........34     31     29     29     26     26
WEATHER COV.....PATCHY
WEATHER TYPE....FOG    NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
TEMP............71     83     90     94     93     90
RH..............100    71     50     36     30     44
20 FT WIND......E 1    E 5    E 8    E 9    E 12   E 12
20 FT WIND GUST.10     10     15     15     20     20
MIX HGT (FT)....1700   1700   3900   6100   6100   5300
TRANSPORT WIND..E 9    E 9    E 12   E 14   E 14   E 15
LAL.............1      1      1      1      1      1

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLEAR (15-25 PERCENT). PATCHY FOG EARLY
                    IN THE MORNING.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 63.
MAX HUMIDITY........100 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........EAST WINDS 5 TO 12 MPH IN THE EVENING BECOMING
                    LIGHT.
LAL.................1.
MIXING HEIGHT.......5300 FT AGL DECREASING TO 200-1500 FT AGL EARLY
                    IN THE EVENING.
MIXING WINDS........EAST 9 TO 15 MPH SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHEAST
                    AROUND 3 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT.
DISPERSION INDEX....2.

TIME (EDT)      6 PM   8 PM   10 PM  MIDNGT 2 AM   4 AM
SKY (%).........26     22     22     20     17     17
WEATHER COV.....
WEATHER TYPE....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
TEMP............87     80     73     70     67     64
RH..............44     57     73     82     91     97
20 FT WIND......E 12   E 9    E 7    E 3    E 2    S 1
20 FT WIND GUST.15     15     15     10     5      5
MIX HGT (FT)....5300   1500   1500   900    200    200
TRANSPORT WIND..E 15   E 15   E 15   E 9    SE 3   SE 3
LAL.............1      1      1      1      1      1

.THURSDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY (20-30 PERCENT). PATCHY FOG EARLY IN THE
                    MORNING.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 93.
MIN HUMIDITY........38 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT WINDS BECOMING EAST 5 TO 9 MPH LATE IN
                    THE MORNING.
LAL.................1.
MIXING HEIGHT.......1000-1700 FT AGL INCREASING TO 5900-6900 FT
                    AGL.
MIXING WINDS........EAST 3 TO 12 MPH INCREASING TO AROUND 14 MPH
                    LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.
DISPERSION INDEX....86.

$$
FORECASTER...SANDRIK
REQUESTED BY...PETER MYERS
TYPE OF REQUEST...WILDFIRE
.TAG 20110608.IMPAS.01/JAX