FNUS75 KPUB 090505
FWSPUB

SPOT FORECAST FOR CALLIE MARIE   BEAR SPRINGS...FORT CARSON FIRE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1105 PM MDT WED JUN 8 2011

IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM NOON TO 9 PM MDT THURSDAY...

.DISCUSSION...
A MOIST EASTERLY FLOW WILL BRING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INTO THE
REGION OVERNIGHT WITH HUMIDITIES RECOVERING TO AROUND 70 PERCENT
BY THURSDAY MORNING.  THE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BACK TO LIGHT
NORTHERLY WINDS DURING WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

ON THURSDAY A FRONT WILL GRADUALLY MOVE NORTHWARD DURING THE DAY.
DURING THE MORNING...THE FIRE WILL BE NORTH OF THE FRONT WITH
EASTERLY WINDS DEVELOPING DURING THE DAY. HUMIDITIES WILL DROP
INTO THE 15 TO 20 PERCENT RANGE BY EARLY AFTERNOON. DURING THE MID
AFTERNOON...THE FRONT MAY MOVE JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE FIRE. AFTER
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY IN THE 10 TO 20
MPH RANGE AND HUMIDITIES WILL DROP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS.

A SLIGHT SHIFT IN THE FRONTAL POSITION CAN RESULT IN A SIGNIFICANT
DIFFERENCE IN WINDS AND HUMIDITIES DURING THURSDAY AFTERNOON. IF
FRONT STAYS JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE FIRE...THEN WINDS WOULD
REMAIN FROM THE EAST AND HUMIDITIES WOULD STAY ABOVE 15 PERCENT.

SINCE A SLIGHT SHIFT IN FRONTAL POSITION CAN RESULT IN A
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCE IN WINDS AND HUMIDITIES...FEEL FREE TO
SUBMIT ANOTHER SPOT IN THE EARLY MORNING.

.REST OF TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY(33 PERCENT) UNTIL 0300...THEN
                    MOSTLY CLOUDY(60 PERCENT). AREAS OF SMOKE.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....53-58F.
MAX HUMIDITY........70-75 PERCENT.
20 FOOT WIND........EAST 6 TO 12 MPH UNTIL 0300...THEN NORTH AROUND 8 MPH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......2000 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WIND......NORTHEAST AROUND 6 MPH UNTIL 0200...THEN WEST
                    AROUND 5 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR.
HAINES INDEX........6 OR HIGH POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
LAL.................1.

.THURSDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY(45 PERCENT). AREAS OF SMOKE.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....83-88F.
MIN HUMIDITY........5-10 PERCENT.
20 FOOT WIND........NORTH 5 TO 10 MPH UNTIL 0900...THEN BECOMING
                    EAST 6 TO 12 MPH...THEN SOUTH 12 TO 18 MPH AFTER
                    1500.
MIXING HEIGHT.......12000 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WIND......NORTHEAST AROUND 6 MPH UNTIL 1100...THEN SOUTH
                    AROUND 12 MPH BY 1300.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR UNTIL 0700. GOOD AFTER 1100.
HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
LAL.................1.

$$
FORECASTER...WOLYN
REQUESTED BY...PETER WOLF
TYPE OF REQUEST...WILDFIRE
.TAG 20110608.CALLI.02/PUB