FNUS75 KPUB 082318
FWSPUB

SPOT FORECAST FOR SHELL FIRE...LA JUNTA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
518 PM MDT WED JUN 8 2011

IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING...

.DISCUSSION...
A FRONT WILL STAY JUST SOUTH OF THE FIRE THIS EVENING. BY LATE IN
THE EVENING ANOTHER SURGE OF MORE MOIST AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE
REGION FROM THE NORTH...WITH HUMIDITY RECOVERY TO AT LEAST 60
PERCENT TONIGHT. AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE UNTIL
2200...AND ANY STORMS WOULD PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND LITTLE OR
NO RAINFALL.

ON THURSDAY...THE FRONT WILL START SOUTH OF THE REGION WITH THE
MORE MOIST AIR MASS OVER THE REGION. BY THE AFTERNOON...THE FRONT
WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTH AND STALL NEAR THE FIRE. IF THE FRONT
MOVES NORTH OF THE REGION...THEN HUMIDITIES ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON
MAY REACH THE SINGLE DIGITS WITH GUSTY SOUTH WINDS.

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY(50 PERCENT) UNTIL 2400...THEN
                    MOSTLY CLOUDY(61 PERCENT). ISOLATED
                    THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL 2200. AREAS OF SMOKE.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....53-58F.
MAX HUMIDITY........63-68 PERCENT.
20 FOOT WIND........EAST WINDS AROUND 13 MPH UNTIL 0300...THEN
                    NORTHEAST 5 TO 10 MPH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......11500 FT AGL UNTIL 2000. 2000 FT AGL AFTER
                    2100.
TRANSPORT WIND......SOUTHEAST AROUND 17 MPH UNTIL 2000...THEN
                    AROUND 29 MPH UNTIL 0200...THEN EAST AROUND 14
                    MPH UNTIL 0500...THEN NORTH AROUND 6 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....EXCELLENT UNTIL 1900...THEN VERY GOOD UNTIL
                    2000...THEN GOOD UNTIL 2100...THEN POOR.
HAINES INDEX........6 OR HIGH POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
LAL.................2 UNTIL 2400...THEN 1.

.THURSDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY(51 PERCENT). AREAS OF SMOKE.
                    ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 1200.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....83-88F.
MIN HUMIDITY........12-17 PERCENT.
20 FOOT WIND........NORTHEAST 5 TO 10 MPH UNTIL 1100...THEN
                    EAST 10 TO 15 MPH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......4500 FT AGL UNTIL 1200...THEN 12000 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WIND......NORTH AROUND 6 MPH UNTIL 0800...THEN SOUTHWEST
                    AROUND 8 MPH UNTIL 1700...THEN SOUTHEAST AROUND
                    6 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR UNTIL 1100...THEN FAIR UNTIL 1200...THEN
                    GOOD UNTIL 1400...THEN FAIR UNTIL 1500...THEN
                    GOOD.
HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
LAL.................1 UNTIL 1200...THEN 2.

$$
FORECASTER...WOLYN
REQUESTED BY...TROY
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20110608.SHELL.01/PUB